Macroeconomics
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
US consumers expect more fiscal support – New York Fed survey
Consumers assigned a 40% chance of more federal welfare benefits in next 12 months
Lower-income households feel worst of Covid-19 economic shock – Fed survey
Nearly 40% of low-earning households faced at least one job loss in March, survey finds
Economists race to merge epidemiology and macro
Promising results are emerging, but workable forecasts may be some way off
Bank of Canada warns of major rise in mortgage arrears
Mortgage arrears could rise to levels nearly double seen in global financial crisis, central bank says
Scale of Covid-19 impact shows up starkly in US stats
All of the US’s key macroeconomic indicators point to a dramatic slump
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
Women affected more by job losses in US lockdown – Kansas Fed
Roughly 60% of job losses were to women in the first half of March, researchers find
Fed banks ramp up Covid-19 surveying
Real-time and weekly surveys reveal deepening economic fallout
Bank of Canada unveils new purchasing programmes
Monetary policy report analysis shows economy could shrink by roughly 30% in Q2
People: Sarb and BoE renew senior appointments
Senior Sarb and BoE officials receive new terms; MAS picks new assistant managing director; ECB appoints director; William Dudley takes consulting job
US jobless claims eclipse previous week’s record high
Economy will require more fiscal support, say current and former senior government officials
Cares Act a very good start, but US may need bigger fiscal response – Rosengren
Boston Fed president warns pandemic could have significant impact on real estate market
IMF programmes must not get too large – Bundesbank paper
Preferred creditor status can lead to large-scale IMF operations crowding out private investors
Covid-19 macro effects could last 40 years – research
Research from University of California says natural rate could take decades to return to normal
Economists must study ‘certainty shocks’ – Bundesbank paper
Policy-makers must distinguish between shocks which raise or lower certainty, researcher says
Canadian governor says central bank can buy corporate bonds outright
Poloz’s statement could mean Bank of Canada is considering QE, observers say
US health system likely to be overwhelmed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Policy-makers must support massive healthcare investment and severe social distancing – researcher
Fiscal effects may take several weeks to pass through – research
Economist examines lag time for Obama’s Great Recession-era fiscal package
Bank of Spain paper looks at macro-pru and growth at risk
Financial cycle, time elapsed and type of measure has major impact on effectiveness – researcher
Trump urges Fed to act on coronavirus
Fed should “cut rate big” and follow moves made by other central banks, Trump says
Riksbank research looks at older workers in Sweden
More old people may remain in labour force due to changes in laws, researcher says
Too early to speculate on coronavirus impact – Fed vice-chair
Experts urge Americans to brace for “inevitable” spread of the virus in the US