Macroeconomics
‘Declaring war on the world economy’: economists react to Trump tariffs
Early estimates point to stagflation in US, as tariffs hit highest level since early 20th century
Bigger housing booms create deeper downturns – IMF paper
Rapid home price rises can trigger big economic busts and misallocations of resources, authors find
Targeted financing would not solve housing crisis – research
National Bank of Denmark argues against allowing premature pension withdrawals for housing
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
‘Dark’ oil shipping impacts inflation – paper
Research finds nearly 43% of seaborne crude is shipped undercover to evade sanctions
UK economy vulnerable to Trump tariffs – BoE’s Greene
MPC member says US has outsized financial impact as biggest single-country trading partner
Immigration reduces inflation in US – IMF paper
But immigrants put upward pressure on house prices, study finds
Disability poses hidden costs in US – Fed research
Authors also explore how gender gap and living alone affect financial wellbeing
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
The UK is not suffering another Truss shock
The increase in gilt yields is a long way from the turmoil of 2022, writes Jagjit Chadha. But it does highlight flaws in the use of fiscal rules
Forbearance does not always lead to ‘zombification’ – BoE paper
Well-designed policies can support firms through temporary periods of stress, researchers find
Stiglitz offers alternatives to standard theories of economic fluctuations
Nobel prize winner argues that endogenously driven variations are key to understanding economies
BIS highlights market ‘uneasiness’ over bond issuance
Claudio Borio says fiscal outlook worldwide is “acutely worrying”
Phillips curve is convex in short term – NBER paper
Data on US and UK shows firms respond more to positive than negative demand shocks
Italian lenders do not under-report default risks – central bank
Commercial lenders’ internal rating-based systems “less conservative” than central bank’s
OECD highlights ‘resilient’ economies beset by risks
Geopolitics, high public debt and possible repricing in private credit markets threaten outlook
South European states benefited most from NGEU – ECB
Recovery and resilience facility’s structural reforms expected to pay off in the long run
NBER paper offers ‘unified theory’ of liquidity traps
Researchers ask whether major economies are doomed to return to zero lower bound
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments