Macroeconomics
James Bullard on Fed policy, action and governance
St Louis president calls for tapering amid “exceptional” job market and risk of “more persistent” inflation, quantifies ‘big tent language’ for pioneering AIT move, and details Congress’s role in Fed ethics oversight
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
BIS paper outlines model of managed floats
Framework captures financial frictions while being simpler than other models, authors say
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
Inequality sharpens monetary policy’s effects – ECB paper
Author analyses “inequality channel” using model with three types of heterogeneous agent
BDF paper analyses banks’ capital buffers
Researchers suggest new approach to setting banks’ structural and cyclical reserve levels
Bolivian ex-governor warns pension law poses bank risk
Current governor has stayed silent on risks posed by measure, former governor Morales says
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Jackson Hole conference switches to online-only model
Kansas City Fed cancels Wyoming get-together, citing Delta variant
Fed may taper asset purchases this year, say FOMC minutes
Federal Reserve staff warn US financial system has “notable” vulnerabilities
Link between US labour costs and inflation has weakened – ECB paper
US can sustain robust labour markets without risking inflation outbreak, researchers say
Macro-pru can help avoid ‘reversal interest rate’ – Bundesbank paper
Use of capital ratios can aid eurozone monetary policy, researchers say
Macro-pru mortgage limits were successful – RBA research
Central bank rates performance of policies implemented to cool risks in the housing market
Paper analyses eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
Short-term views, trust and Covid-19 shaped medium-term expectations – Bank of Finland paper
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
Vast majority of central banks provide communications training
Social media, writing skills and public speaking emerged as key areas
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
Central banks will need new tools if low rates persist – Rogoff
Governments must clamp down on crypto assets while central banks develop CBDCs, economist says
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…