Macroeconomics
ECB paper finds the Fed ‘well-served’ by its stress index
Researchers from ECB and Fed examine whether the economy behaves differently during periods of high stress, and the implications this has for policy-makers' models
Bank of Israel cut rates despite 'rapid' increase in house prices
Four out of five members of the Bank of Israel's MPC backed last month's 25 basis point rate cut to 0.75% following weaker performance across range of indicators
Restrictions on capital outflows more effective when supported by strong fundamentals and institutions
IMF working paper finds tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows when macroeconomic fundamentals, good institutions, or comprehensive existing restrictions are lacking
Focus on non-linearity can improve macro estimates, research finds
Czech National Bank working paper argues considering non-linearity can advance probabilistic economic assessments; focuses on relationship between credit markets and the rest of the economy
Mix of micro and macro indicators improves chances of spotting bank distress early on
ECB working paper presents ‘early warning model' using bank and country-level data for predicting individual bank distress in Europe
Economics Nobel goes to CBP board member Robert Shiller
Central Banking Publications advisory board member honored for work predicting long-term price trends; Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen share the prize
Trust in financial sector shapes long-term consumption patterns
General economic indicators, ‘animal spirits', and trust all explain ‘consumer sentiment crisis' stoked by the Great Recession, according to DNB working paper
NPLs hold back Serbian banks as economic imbalances remain, says central bank
National Bank of Serbia financial stability report warns change in the behavioural pattern of European banks; says Fed taper could bridle domestic credit and economic growth in the medium term
Temptation preferences can inform asset pricing, Fed researchers find
According to San Francisco Fed paper, self-control preferences have important implications for macroeconomic issues, such as social security reform, income tax reform and asset-pricing issues
Communicating uncertainty in economic forecasts
The way central banks and economists communicate uncertainty in macroeconomic forecasts differs around the world. Charles Manski contrasts the approaches of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England
New deputy governor takes office at RBI
Indian government appoints Urjit Patel to replace Subir Gokarn on the Reserve Bank of India’s governing board; management roles reallocated again
Boston Fed paper lauds survey data over rational assumptions for macro models
Research published by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston finds the performance of DSGE models is enhanced by introducing survey data on inflation, unemployment and interest rates
Bank of Finland’s Honkapohja gets second five-year term
Seppo Honkapohja reappointed for a second five-year term on the board of the Bank of Finland; only three board members of a possible six currently in office