Macroeconomics
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
Reserve management in China: foreign reserves, renminbi internationalisation and beyond
Hui Feng explores how China has managed its reserves over the past decade, detailing the dynamics of the PBoC's investment strategy and how reserve management has impacted monetary policy
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
Fed’s Harker warns US higher education ‘is in peril’
Philadelphia Fed president calls for reforms, as colleges face up to $115 billion in deficits
Fed’s Bostic says economic inclusion goals shape policy
Atlanta Fed president calls for more joint work with CFPB
The evolving ‘strategy function’ in central banks
Some institutions participating in a survey of 27 central banks still struggle to fully harness an effective ‘strategy function’, according to the ECB’s Jean-Charles Sevet and Alejandro de la Cuesta
Foreign banks can reduce harm of ‘doom loop’ – ECB paper
Cross-border banks in eurozone countries soften effects of sovereign stress on credit
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
IMF adjusts growth forecasts upward
Fund warns of uneven and unequal recovery, but is more optimistic than it was in October
A latent rise in r* could upend monetary policy
A rising natural rate could create serious challenges for policy-makers, write Jorma Schäublin and Philip Turner
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Economics in central banking: ‘Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade’, Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Tra Nguyen
An extensive data-gathering exercise allowed the authors to shed new light on critical aspects of policy-making in a globalised world, while clearing a path for other researchers to follow
Fed paper finds ways to boost forecast performance
Adding extra information can help make forecasts more accurate and robust, authors say
BoE paper outlines new theory of automation and inequality
Authors highlight “new theoretical mechanism” linking automation to higher wealth inequality
Paper models link between policy uncertainty and growth
Bank of Luxembourg paper looks at how investors adjust their estimates of monetary policy
Fed officials differ on outlook for US economy
Leaders agree on policy, but differ on forecasts, measures and key concerns
Paper examines US pensions’ effects on natural rate
Welfare effects of possible reforms depends on productivity growth, Bank of Italy paper finds
Book notes: Capital and ideology, by Thomas Piketty
A political pamphlet like Milton’s ‘Areopagitica’, but longer
How valuable is a PhD economist?
Heads of research from Canada, Israel and North Macedonia weigh the benefits of advanced economics education – and the challenge of retaining top staff
Powell: US economy still ‘a long way’ from meeting Fed goals
Fed chair predicts continued need for low interest rates and QE, as recovery remains “uneven and far from complete”
Green finance: new initiatives in China, Europe and Americas
Eurosystem adopts common investment principles; China pushes climate modelling; and more
Riksbank proposes larger transfer to Swedish Treasury
Central bank would provide Skr6.8 billion to the government in 2021
Paper finds little evidence of long-term scarring
Richmond Fed research finds short-term demand shocks rarely create hysteresis
Fed’s 2021 stress test includes major asset price shock
CCAR will evaluate 19 largest banks; scenario includes 55% fall in equity prices