Macroeconomics
Falls in uncertainty may warn of coming crises – Bundesbank paper
Researchers attempt to quantify relationship between rising confidence and early signs of crisis
Trump has changed markets’ expectations of Fed’s moves – researchers
Goldman Sachs and NBER both study implications of Trump’s tweets on trade and the Fed
Central banks must use “unconstrained” negative rates, Rogoff tells ECB
Policy-makers must ensure cash depreciates against electronic money, or face failure, Rogoff says
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
IMF economist: central banks may have misdiagnosed secular slowdown
Lower neutral rates may have been caused by central banks lowering rates, researcher says
Book notes: Economics for the common good, by Jean Tirole
The book should be well received amid the recent rise in populism
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Asymmetric inflation targets improve welfare – Chicago Fed paper
Fed can remove deflationary bias by adopting asymmetric target, model suggests
Yellen condemns ‘unacceptable’ treatment of female and minority economists
Former Fed chair says more needs to be done to tackle discrimination in the profession
IMF research flags urgent need for climate policy framework
Co-ordination of fiscal, financial and monetary instruments will be needed, say authors
Argentine governor demands political consensus on macroeconomic framework
Sandleris says every election unleashes market volatility and disrupts stabilisation efforts
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
FOMC divided over July cut, minutes show
Some FOMC members worried by effect of rate cut on US financial stability
Anticipation of fiscal stimulus has ‘sizeable’ impact on growth – paper
Passing the 2018 US Bipartisan Budget Act increased GDP by 1%, researchers find
Inflation target uncertainty magnifies price shocks’ impact- BoI paper
Researchers investigate effects of central banks failing to pefectly follow targets
Shale oil boom has not shifted global supply- ECB paper
Global oil supply appears to be “rather vertical” at all times, researchers find
‘Animal spirits’ are real, DNB paper says
Researchers analyse data on household spending and consumer confidence
Negative ECB deposit rate had limited effects – Bundesbank paper
Well-capitalised banks in core countries responded most to negative rates, researchers find
ECB’s bond purchases restrict monetary policy – DNB paper
Higher demand for safe assets widens bond yields and cuts policy transmission, says researcher
ECB paper models eurozone’s vulnerabilities
Model can be used to predict build-up of major macroeconomic imbalances, researchers say
Institutional approaches are key factor in mortgage defaults – BoE paper
European countries show major differences in mortgage default factors, researchers find
Eritrean authorities must restore central bank independence – IMF
Macroeconomic situation is “dire” and financial sector needs restoring, IMF says
Policy uncertainty can magnify cost shocks – BoI paper
Lack of clarity over inflation targets increases effects of cost-push shocks on output, researchers say