Data
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
Tighter credit and monetary policy hurts the young – ECB study
Borrowing limits push up rents but do not affect house prices, research shows
Trade wars could cost world $6.5tn by 2030 – Swift study
Fragmented financial landscape “benefits no one”, report shows
ECB set for 100bp of rate cuts by autumn – Greek governor
France is ‘an issue’ and Trump presidency an ‘explosive mix’, says Stournaras
Distributions allow better state-level forecasts – RBI paper
Authors find new method incorporating inflation and expectations can cut forecast errors
Tax avoiders less likely to channel funds through Netherlands – DNB
Annual flow of money to tax havens fell by 75% in just five years, central bank says
Keep liquidity provision loose during shocks – ECB study
Central banks can lessen harm to economy by reducing liquidity premium, say authors
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Lagarde warns of widening climate finance gap
“We must adapt and become more resilient” in a fair and equitable manner, says ECB president
Rate uncertainty means firms hire and invest less – BdF study
European companies hoard cash and reduce dividend payments when monetary stance is unclear
ECB study highlights firms’ exposure to property downturn
Analysis examines risks to various classes of investor from exposure to commercial real estate
Energy price rises have stronger effects than decreases – study
Asymmetric effects of gas and crude oil price rises could lead to tighter monetary policy
The hidden dynamics behind China’s BoP ‘errors and omissions’
Marcello Minenna highlights the possible implications an unaccounted-for £30bn has for the PBoC
Cloud and AI ‘dramatically improving’ data use at BoE
UK central bank creates cloud-based platform to streamline processing of its 30,000 data series
High Russian growth ‘extremely unlikely’ – Bank of Finland study
Reports shows labour shortages, capacity constraints are beginning to bite
IMF review of Russia’s economy ‘postponed indefinitely’
Regular Article IV consultation cancelled after international pressure
Rise in UK services inflation curbs bets on BoE rate cut
CPI flat overall, but economists say uptick in core and services numbers likely to make policy-makers pause
Global house prices have ‘almost stabilised’ – BIS
Prices still declining in aggregate, a trend driven mainly by China and the eurozone
BIS publishes centuries of data on central bank balance sheets
New “spliced” series extends back to founding of Sweden’s Riksbank in 17th century
UK CPI up less than expected as services inflation falls
Figures may help allay concerns over persistent wage pressures
Income not main determinant of inflation variances – ECB study
Research claims “fixed shopping basket” method not helpful for measuring differences across households