Economics
Two-thirds of central banks forecast policy rate in main models
But relatively few make their rate forecasts public
Economics teams tend to be tailored by institution
But hub and spoke model is prevalent among high income respondents
Bailey: UK must stay open for business
BoE governor calls for bridges to be built with EU countries and others
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
Doing nothing is ‘least costly’ response to US tariffs – BoF blog
Costs will be borne by American firms and households, Bank of Finland analysis shows
Lagarde warns of widening climate finance gap
“We must adapt and become more resilient” in a fair and equitable manner, says ECB president
Book notes: The road to freedom: economics and the good society, Joseph E Stiglitz
A stimulating amalgamation of previous ideas presenting the kind of economic system most conducive to decent society
Rate uncertainty means firms hire and invest less – BdF study
European companies hoard cash and reduce dividend payments when monetary stance is unclear
ECB study highlights firms’ exposure to property downturn
Analysis examines risks to various classes of investor from exposure to commercial real estate
Bofit study projects continued slowdown in China
Group’s latest forecast says economy needs to be rebalanced in favour of consumption
No systemic link between dollar and oil price yet – ECB paper
Increasing value of crude no longer weakens greenback, but does not “significantly” lift currency
SNB researchers develop ‘more precise’ LLM-based risk predictor
New model allows for “more nuanced understanding” of types of uncertainty, researchers say
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Global component of inflation surged in pandemic – research
Dallas Fed authors say international factors exert greater influence than they did pre-Covid
ECB could go below r* when setting policy, says Panetta
Bank of Italy governor says eurozone has to return to “normal way of doing monetary policy”
Differences in eurozone states ‘support disinflation narrative’
BdF deputy governor confident inflation will keep falling based on wage developments
IDB announces organisational restructure
Bank creates new VP role and divisions, and elevates chief economist
Rehn reiterates need for inquiry into demographics, inflation
Europeans need to ready themselves for trade fragmentation, says Bank of Finland governor
PBoC cuts loan prime rates
Reductions in benchmark lending rates follow recent stimulus measures
Global soft landing could ameliorate US inflation – research
Study by San Francisco Fed finds rising prices of domestic goods are tied to international factors
Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson win Nobel prize in economics
Trio given award for work on role of colonial institutions in shaping long-term prosperity