Economics
Winds of change 2026: managing opportunities
Shifts in monetary and fiscal policy are reshaping fixed income markets
Mutual funds amplify FX sensitivity to capital flows – study
Investment in Swiss bonds increasingly linked to franc’s value, SNB paper finds
NBFIs grew twice as fast as banks in 2024, FSB finds
Annual report highlights strong growth in investment funds but flags lack of data on private credit
Water scarcity threatens economies, IMF and BIS warn
Studies say impacts on growth, inflation, fiscal policy and balance of payments are likely to worsen
Manufacturing will not be jobs engine in US – St Louis Fed study
Authors say periods of rising productivity in sector have been accompanied by drops in employment
Is this the end of dollar dominance?
Steve Kamin tracks evolving investor attitudes to the US in the wake of 'Liberation Day'
Tariffs may permanently raise medical goods costs – NBER study
Research also finds that trade barriers can worsen domestic supply shortages
US inflation expectations hold steady in November – NY Fed
Latest survey shows increasing concerns over medical costs and financial welfare more generally
IMF opens third China office in Shanghai
Institution and PBoC say new hub will conduct research into Asia-Pacific’s emerging economies
Global investment outlook: 2026 and beyond
Broadening, steepening and weakening: Franklin Templeton’s top investment ideas for 2026 and beyond
BIS probes ‘exceptional’ FX activity around April shock
Triennial survey would likely have shown less dramatic shift without tariffs, economists find
Public backstop complements private liquidity – BoE paper
Wholesale funding conditions improve even without banks tapping lending facilities, researchers find
Minimum haircuts must be carefully designed – BIS bulletin
Funding- and collateral-driven trades incentivise different repo terms, authors point out
Rise of NBFIs suggests gradualism is best policy – BIS bulletin
Institutions’ uncertain effects on transmission warrant flexibility from central banks, says study
Private liquidity insurance improves stability – BIS study
Yet prospect of central bank interventions can crowd out market, authors say
Lagarde says talk of AI bubble misses ‘bigger picture’
ECB president, a former AI sceptic, now believes not embracing it could ‘jeopardise Europe’s future’
BIS paper explores how central bankers’ lives shape policy
Officials who have experienced high inflation tend to be more hawkish, researcher finds
€25K handouts would not affect labour market – ECB paper
Stimulus packages are effective in raising consumption, researchers argue
France could lose 7% of GDP from climate-linked event – BdF deputy
Bénassy-Quéré says even ‘the most ardent’ sceptics will have to accept reality of global warming
‘Imaginations are running wild’ – Nagel on AI
Europe is prepared for a financial downturn, Bundesbank president says