Recession
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
Banking sector resilience ‘likely to be tested’ – IMF’s Adrian
Fund’s stability report says vulnerabilities are high and rising, creating difficult policy choices
Estimating the cost of a pandemic grant for the world’s poorest economies
The cost of support measures for vulnerable economies is manageable, says Steve Kamin, but political leadership may be lacking
Uncertainty hampering Fed’s and Congress’s stimulus
Research says uncertain outlook created by pandemic has been a key contributor to size of recession
James Bullard on the Fed’s policy review, FSOC and forecasting jobs data
St Louis Fed president discusses his support for average inflation targeting, his concerns about US Treasuries market function, non-bank regulatory weakness and negative rates, as well as the unexpected success in using Homebase data to predict highly…
US unemployment falls to 10.2%
Miscalculation errors continue to understate headline figures, Peterson Institute research finds
US and German economies suffer largest quarterly contraction in decades
Official figures say second quarter saw biggest US GDP decline since the Great Depression
Fed extends swap lines and warns of slowing US economy
More fiscal and monetary stimulus will be needed as cases surge in US, chair Powell said
Canada holds rates as governor warns of “long climb out”
Governor says interest rates will stay “unusually low” as central bank forecasts GDP fall of 7.8%
Tenreyro sheds light on BoE’s ‘epi-macro’ modelling
Staff have conducted several virus simulations, but uncertainty remains high
Banks will be tested in next phase of pandemic – FSB chair
Reforms are needed to improve resolution planning and non-bank resilience, Randal Quarles says
Covid-19 is chance to lower carbon dioxide trajectory – SF Fed research
CO2 emissions likely to fall dramatically in 2020; targeted fiscal spending and telecommuting trends could cut trajectory, researchers say
US facing new challenges as Covid cases surge – Powell
Powell warns of public confidence hit as US infections soar past previous peak
Bank of Canada stimulus to continue for ‘very long period’ – Macklem
Economic recovery will be “prolonged and bumpy”, governor Tiff Macklem warns
US economy entering ‘bounce back’ phase – Powell
Fed chair forced to defend move to follow through with corporate bond purchases in Senate hearing
Trends in reserve management: 2020 survey results
Covid-19 expected to dent the risk appetite of central bank portfolio managers; socially responsible investing gains ground
Should the BoE go negative?
Much research into negative rates suggests central banks should have little to fear, but there are plenty of caveats
Iran’s race towards monetary policy reform faces high hurdle reality
The Majlis Research Center’s Tohid Atashbar says positive outcomes from the Iranian central bank’s fast-tracking of monetary policy reform – made in response to Covid-19 and US sanctions – may prove difficult to deliver
High US inflation should not be ruled out
A prolonged health crisis raises the risk that supply-side factors, monetary expansion and rising personal savings could stoke hidden inflationary pressures
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
UK GDP growth plunges to -20% in April
Figure is worst on record, but may be somewhat better than earlier official estimates
Fed promises to keep buying assets at current rate
Fed will hold accommodation in place for “however long it takes”, chair Jerome Powell says; FOMC releases first projections this year
Bank of Spain paper presents ‘global weakness index’
System uses non-linear factor models to spot recessions in real time, researchers say
Fed makes last-minute changes to ‘Main Street’ programme
Programme will be open “soon”, despite plans to launch in May