Recession
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Romania’s Mugur Isarescu on independence in a ‘post-truth’ world
National Bank of Romania veteran governor speaks to Christopher Jeffery about the country’s shift to a market economy, challenges in the eurozone and independence in a ‘post-truth’ world
Limited access to finance increased business exits in Great Recession – St Louis Fed
Illiquidity may have played a greater role than insolvency in business exits, researchers find
Australia poised for rate cut as economy continues to weaken
Low inflation and a declining property market make case for reversal of earlier stance
Trade protection leads to recessions in the long run – Bank of Canada researcher
Some policies can provide temporary booms in the short run, Yuko Imura finds
Time for resilience
Events that impact markets have made it crucial to build resilient portfolios that are aware of downside risks. BlackRock explores the importance of protection in downturn scenarios for reserve managers.
The IFF China Report 2019
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
The IFF China Report 2019: Redesigning the international trading and monetary system
Reform of the financial system that brought about the 2007–08 financial crisis has not gone far enough and advanced and emerging market economies must find a more co-operative way forward to ensure globalisation can continue.
Major EU banks would withstand economic storm – ECB research
ECB test says in profound crisis below 10% of banks would struggle to meet capital requirements
Fed’s 2019 stress tests to assume largest unemployment shock to date
Central bank also announces moves to enhance transparency in its stress-testing programme
Fed taking cautious stance on rate path
Incoming Fed officials signal there may be a rate-hike pause
Employers alter skill demands in line with unemployment, researchers find
Requirements for a bachelor’s degree increased during higher unemployment, authors find
More trouble likely after ‘bumps’ in past quarter, says BIS’s Borio
Corporate debt markets are looking overstretched and could trigger problems; term spread may not be best indicator of recession, special feature finds
Yield curve inversions may become more frequent, researchers say
Richmond Fed study examines relationship between term premium and yield curve inversion
Uncertainty over monetary policy is ‘recessionary’, researchers say
Forward guidance reduces uncertainty and supports the economy, paper finds
Book notes: The other half of macroeconomics, by Richard Koo
Richard Koo questions whether central bank policy can work during a balance sheet recession, writes Graham Bannock
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Brainard says yield curve inversion may not presage recession
Flatter yield curve “may temper somewhat” fears of a coming recession, says governor
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
Fintech in the ‘new era’ – Sustainable and sound development
Li Dongrong, president of the National Internet Finance Association of China and former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, discusses the growing importance of fintech and how innovation must be married to self-discipline for China to make a…
Quarles: yield curve flattening not “likely” a signal of recession
Flattening of yield curve is due to “expected lags” in the adjustment of longer-term rates once shorter-term rates start to rise, says Fed vice-chair
The IFF China Report 2018: China’s opening-up and reform policy
The experiences of China’s opening-up and reform during the past 40 years, which includes a transition from an agricultural economy to one seeking to offer high-end manufacturing and services, offer valuable lessons to other nations seeking to pursue…
Lagarde proposes new European fiscal fund
The mechanism would reduce reliance on monetary policy to respond to future crises