Recession
US jobless claims eclipse previous week’s record high
Economy will require more fiscal support, say current and former senior government officials
Failure to curb ‘binge borrowing’ could worsen downturn – Yellen
“Excessively” high corporate borrowing may trigger a “wave of corporate defaults” in the coming months, former Fed chair warns
East Asian economies face ‘profound’ impact from Covid-19 – World Bank
Report estimates growth could turn negative for the region in “lower-case” scenario
16% of US jobs in high-risk sectors – Brookings research
Researchers examine possible impact of coronavirus on US sectors and metropolitan areas
US economy could face largest quarterly contraction in history – Bullard
$2.5 trillion in national income might be wiped out, St Louis Fed president says; Congressional leaders agree $2 trillion stimulus package
Canadian governor says central bank can buy corporate bonds outright
Poloz’s statement could mean Bank of Canada is considering QE, observers say
Book notes: Renewing our monetary vows, by Richard Barwell and Jagjit Chadha
Open letters to the governor of the Bank of England, as new chief Andrew Bailey takes over
The Tokyo Olympics: downside risks prevail
The Bank of Japan’s latest stimulus effort seems to be weak, and comes at a time when the benefits of hosting the Tokyo Olympics may be overstated – even if the games still take place
Do low rates spur investment?
Many believe low interest rates spur investment, but there appears to be little hard evidence to support such claims, writes former IMF head Jacques de Larosière
Why Bulgaria needs to deepen its currency board
The BNB’s currency board rules should be extended to transaction deposits at commercial banks, which could in turn issue digital currencies, even in the event of euro adoption
Stability versus solvency
There is still far too much regulatory forbearance on troubled bank debt. More on-site inspections and genuine writedowns are needed to fix the banking system
Credit-fuelled construction booms lead to busts – IMF research
Credit booms that lead to rapid growth in construction more likely to end in crisis, researchers find
The challenges facing Christine Lagarde
The new ECB president will need to focus on a successful review of the ECB’s monetary and communications policy, while encouraging fiscal stimulus and structural reform
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Chances of US recession ‘notably increased’, FOMC members say
Fed rate-setters worried by trade and political uncertainty and weaker manufacturing, minutes show
Book notes: Narrative economics, by Robert Shiller
The book is good fun to read, but some elements are a little disappointing
Law could help central banks fight the next recession
Brookings panel discusses using countercyclical regulations to boost spending at the ZLB
Prices more responsive in longer buyer-seller relationships – NY Fed paper
Pass-through of exchange rate shocks could decrease during recession, research finds
The Fed’s trade policy dilemma
FOMC should loosen, but members must speak out more forcefully against tariffs, writes Barry Eichengreen
Mark Carney on joined-up policy-making, forward guidance and Brexit
BoE governor rules out negative rates and change to inflation targets, offers update on too-big-to-fail and use of CCyBs, highlights challenges of an asymmetric monetary system, hits out at cumbersome payments and warns Facebook’s libra cannot ‘learn as…
Central banking’s 30-year cycle
Central banking has hit another crossroads, writes Central Banking founder Robert Pringle
ECB paper models eurozone’s vulnerabilities
Model can be used to predict build-up of major macroeconomic imbalances, researchers say
Raising CCyBs could have ‘greatly mitigated’ 2008 crisis – St Louis Fed paper
Policy-makers could have avoided a fall in aggregate consumption of 21%, researcher finds
British lawmakers ask BoE for latest Brexit analysis
Publication of previous analysis led to angry criticism by UK politicians