Recession
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
IMF economist takes on vexed question of macro-pru calibration
Housing markets are “at a turning point”, says Laura Valderrama, and policy faces tough trade-offs
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
IMF’s Adrian on the systemic threat posed by a ‘weak tail’ of financial institutions
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks to Christopher Jeffery about bank runs and emergency interventions, market and oversight failings, and the need for action on run rate assumptions, interest rate risk, deposit insurance, crypto regulation and a ‘weak…
Advanced economies face slowdown and stubborn inflation
Jagjit Chadha analyses the shifting outlook for the world economy, with more hard work ahead for central banks
Fed raises rates by 25bp as it chases lower core inflation
Policy-makers still need to “take away the punch bowl”, economist says
Book notes: Money and the rule of law, by Peter Boettke, Alexander Salter and Daniel Smith
A largely US-focused book, which hankers for more robust rules for central banks but isn’t explicit as to what kind
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: The next age of uncertainty, by Stephen Poloz
This book provides a well-informed and well-argued view about our economic future
Book notes: A guide to good money, by Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle
The authors make some good points even if one does not agree with this full-bodied attack on Keynesian economics and inflation targeting
Disinflation may trigger recession, say Mester and Jefferson
Fed president and governor acknowledge policy tightening is uncertain and costly
How US demographics complicate the Fed’s job
Ageing population and pandemic legacy are confounding economists’ predictions
Bank of Canada officials explain monetary policy transition
Central bank publishes first record of monetary policy meeting discussions
RBA makes ninth straight rise and forecasts more to come
Governor warns Australia will be slow to achieve its inflation target
The strong dollar, global inflation and global recession
Steve Kamin asks whether the Fed’s tight policy is pushing the world towards recession
Rethinking the CCyB
As central banks rush to replenish bank capital reserves, the countercyclical buffer may need some fine-tuning
2022: The year in review
The invasion of Ukraine left central banks facing yet another exceptional set of challenges. Central Banking looks back at the stories that made the biggest impact this year
Fed slows rate rises with 50bp increase
Powell stresses possibility of soft landing supported by “structural labour shortage”
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
The book’s breakthrough is its infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments. It is a splendid and thrilling read
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
The Central Bank of Chile governor speaks about stubbornly high prices, Fed policy spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and the need to address unconscious bias
Book notes: Zero interest rate policy and the new abnormal, by Michael Beenstock
Author's contention that asset purchases caused the low neutral rate of interest is entertaining and infuriating in equal measure
RBNZ delivers record 75bp rate rise to curb inflation
Central bank now expects policy rate to peak at 5.5% next year, up from previous estimate of 4.1%
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
This book offers new insights into the tough decisions and tremendous efforts Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker