Recession
World has ‘very little space’ for policy, says Georgieva
Carney, Georgieva, Donohoe and El-Erian agree room is limited and mistakes are punished harshly
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
Turkish central bank cuts rates despite 80% official inflation
MPC says growth rate could be slowing, and warns of pressure on current account
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan detail three theories on the causes of high inflation, as well as their implications for policy responses
Global economy faces four key risks, warns MAS chief
Ravi Menon says era of cheap money, cheap labour and cheap energy is most likely over
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
BoE’s planned procyclical capital hike bewilders banks
Some doubt regulator will go through with counter-cyclical buffer hike while forecasting recession
Bank of Mexico’s battle to restore price stability
Despite presidential attacks, former officials say a solid institutional framework preserves central bank autonomy – likely a key asset in the battle against inflation
How central bank mistakes after 2019 led to inflation
Central banks must acknowledge their own mistakes and outline concrete steps to restore the public’s confidence in their ability to ensure price stability, write Graeme Wheeler and Bryce Wilkinson*
The case for restoring the role of monetary aggregates
Tim Congdon argues that a surge in money supply in response to Covid-19 sparked heightened inflation and central banks need to refocus their attention on monetary aggregates
BoE flags global risks in ‘opaque’ commodities market
LME disruption reveals “highly leveraged” participants within financial system
Williams also expects US to avoid recession this year
Unemployment will likely rise to 4% as growth slows due to tightening process, says NY Fed head
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
BIS says central banks must act ‘decisively’ on inflation
Tightening policy hard and fast may be central banks’ best shot at engineering a soft landing
Fed finds major banks able to withstand ‘severe recession’
All banks pass stress test despite tougher scenario than in 2021
Fed meets inflation surge with 75bp hike
Unexpected spike in inflation and expectations spurs committee into rare policy aggression
Bernanke says Fed acted too slowly on inflation
Former Fed chair argues forward guidance hampered Fed’s response to rising prices
BoE raises rate to 1% as recession risks mount
Inflation expected to climb above 10% and GDP growth to drop to around zero
Fed makes first 50bp rate hike in decades
Central bank under pressure to curb inflation without crashing the economy
Bank of Russia continues unwinding giant rate hike
Central bank cuts rate 300 basis points to 14%, in second reduction this month
Andrew Bailey acknowledges risk of ‘over-tightening’
Senior economists discuss how to avoid stagflation during a fragile moment for the global economy
Fed triggers lift-off with 25bp hike
FOMC cuts economic growth projections for 2022 but proceeds with tightening
Covid-19, crypto and climate weigh on global economy – GFSR
Central banks face difficult “intertemporal trade-offs”; poorer nations unlikely to regain pre-Covid growth levels for “many, many years”, says IMF’s financial counsellor Tobias Adrian
Summers fears for Fed’s ability to remove ‘punchbowl’
Central banks may not be able to counter inflation threat amid possible return to 1960s economics, says former US Treasury secretary