Recession
Fed makes last-minute changes to ‘Main Street’ programme
Programme will be open “soon”, despite plans to launch in May
Mass bankruptcies should feature in Fed stress tests – former officials
Crowding of bankruptcy courts can effectively double loss given default, says Jeremy Stein
Central banking enters a new era
Central banks face a delicate balancing act to preserve their reputations as they evolve into ‘buyers of last resort’ and some of their actions appear functionally equivalent to ‘monetary financing’
US needs aggressive fiscal policy and negative rates – St Louis Fed economist
Policy response must be powerful enough to overshoot previous growth trend for a period, researcher says
What would yield curve control mean for Fed’s asset purchases?
Policy may imply shift in rationale from crisis to recovery, and potentially more volatility in purchases
Nigeria slashes rates by 100bp
Central bank thinks stimulus package can still prevent the economy from entering recession
Fed could exploit helicopter money with digital currency system – former officials
Simon Potter and Julia Coronado propose recession insurance bonds, consumer QE and Fed-backed digital currency as crisis tools
ECB’s Enria unsure banks will dip into capital buffers
Anxiety over investor and rating agency reaction may limit banks’ use of Covid relief measures
Banxico forecasts Mexican economy could fall by 8.8% in 2020
Central bank stresses the profound uncertainty to which the economy is subject
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
The complex art of reserve management
The coronavirus lockdown represents another inflection point for central banks seeking to optimise the management of their $12 trillion in FX reserves
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
Covid-19 should serve as warning for climate change – BIS official
Policy-makers need “holistic approach” to global risks, says Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
US banks should prepare for uneven recovery – Patrick Harker
Banks “shouldn’t be issuing large dividends at the moment”, Philadelphia Fed chief says
Fed set to adopt ‘elements’ of price-level targeting
Covid-19 could act as a catalyst for a Janet Yellen-supported Fed move to adopt elements of price-level targeting. But questions remain about the timing of such a move
BoE predicts sharp fall and fast recovery for UK
Forecasters predict limited long-term scarring from virus shock; banks are in strong position to lend, stress test finds
Carbon tax spike could spur global recession – S&P
Higher carbon prices would trigger widespread industry defaults, says agency research unit
Can growth in developing Asia be made more sustainable?
The structure of the global economy will be reshaped by Covid-19, and what happens in Asia will be crucial, writes Philip Turner
US default rates could hit 8.1% without policy action – Richmond Fed
Loan forbearance policies could see this drop to “essentially zero” in 2021, researchers say
Pandemics can depress natural rates for multiple decades – SF Fed
Real wages tend to rise gradually for 30 years after pandemics, data stretching back to 1340s shows
Mass testing ‘would end crisis’ – Bullard
Government should foot bill for Covid-19 test production, Bullard says
Canadian governor sees ‘robust’ recovery in third quarter
Poloz says major shock to growth will probably be followed by “swift” recovery
Bank of Canada unveils new purchasing programmes
Monetary policy report analysis shows economy could shrink by roughly 30% in Q2
IMF projects deepest recession since Great Depression
Global growth could contract by between -3% and -6% this year, a combined loss of output of $9 trillion for 2020 and 2021