Growth
Offshoring of services could hinder job security – paper
National Bank of Belgium examines impact of offshoring goods and services; pace of services offshoring could hurt job prospects for those working in the sector
Increasing female participation in workforce will help US growth – Yellen
Fed chair examines barriers women still face when entering the workforce; increasing participation rate could help increase US output by 5%
Israel’s Flug: action needed on productivity
Bank of Israel governor warns Israel remains a laggard when it comes to growing output per person
Long-run rates have been lower – Chicago Fed economists
Economists note the long run downward trend among G7 countries has reversed in the past, suggesting it could do so again
PBoC’s Zhou: 6.5% growth target is ‘within reach’
Governor says he believes China’s growth target is attainable, as he urges countries to remain open to trade and investment
IMF warns bad political choices could trigger instability
Fund says financial stability has improved, but high risks remain in China, Europe and the US
Type of uncertainty matters for modelling – Norges Bank paper
Author develops method to “disentangle” various forms of uncertainty, finding they can have good and bad effects
IMF remains gloomy on Brexit as UK heads for snap election
Maurice Obstfeld admits IMF was overly pessimistic on consumer response to Brexit, but says supply shock could still bite; global outlook more positive
Volatile housing market puts RBA under pressure
Variations in housing growth and prices ramp up risk to financial stability, RBA minutes show; regulator to consider further measures “if needed”
BoJ paper sketches ‘vicious circle’ behind productivity traps
“Lacklustre” economic reforms and firms’ unwillingness to innovate may create a “negatively reinforcing” loop, the authors warn
IMF paper examines impact of China’s new growth model on sub-Saharan Africa
Chinese rebalancing does not have to negatively affect sub-Saharan Africa, paper says; high commodity prices were not the “determining factor” behind region’s strong growth
RBNZ paper develops ‘intuitive and reliable’ output gap measure
Authors turn to a “Beveridge-Nelson filter” to produce an output gap estimate that performs better than those produced by other filtering techniques
Brazil can no longer rely on consumption for growth – paper
IMF paper highlights need for Brazil to switch to investment-led growth model as infrastructure caps threaten productivity and competitiveness
Bank and capital market financing not created equal – BIS paper
Substituting bank loans for non-bank finance after a shock appears to have a negative impact on the economy, authors find
Commodity prices impact the probability of project completion in Peru – paper
BIS paper examines how a drop in oil prices affects the timing and completion of investment projects; results show mining sector in Peru is particularly sensitive
Schembri: mix of factors holding back Canadian investment
The outlook is improving, the deputy governor says; openness to trade and immigration are likely to boost growth
BoJ minutes highlight hopeful signs for Japanese economy
Members highlight “more solid” recovery supported by a pick-up in exports and production, although inflation is still sluggish
Boost technology diffusion to solve productivity puzzle – Haldane
BoE’s chief economist says a “long tail” of low-productivity firms need support as they fall further behind a small frontier group
Policy intervention helps economies escape ‘stagnation traps’ – paper
Research published by ECB explains how “pessimistic expectations” can lead to low employment and growth, dampening investment; countercyclical subsidies could be the answer
Danish GDP revision helps solve productivity puzzle – bank
Figures better capture details of the current account, leading to substantial revisions in GDP and productivity growth, the Danish central bank finds
Tech-related mismeasurement not to blame for 2004 slowdown
Fast growth between 1995 and 2004 is the “anomaly”, the authors suggest; further productivity growth is expected when the potential of latest advancements is realised
Asia needs new growth model – BoJ’s Kuroda
Region can no longer serve as “the workshop of the world” as the trade in goods slows down, says the Bank of Japan governor
Fed paper flags risk of low rates misallocating capital
Where firms rely heavily on intangible capital, lower rates could harm firms’ investment and contribute to secular stagnation, economists warn
Mongolia sees hope of recovery after rough year
The commodity reliant country faced slowing growth and inflation in 2016, but the outlook for this year is somewhat brighter