Growth
BoJ ups growth forecast after Trump shock
Improvements in overseas economies and yen weakness prompt central bank to revise up its growth forecast, though inflation is largely unchanged; policy remains on hold
Brexit pain may be coming – panel
Former Bank of England officials warn of fading consumer spending and investment
BIS authors identify tipping point in household debt impact
Researchers trace the effects of household debt on the real economy, identifying thresholds beyond which the long-run impact on consumption and growth intensifies
Dominican Central Bank reports growth of 6.6%
Provisional data from the bank shows it is the fastest growing within the region for the fourth year in a row; agriculture sector fuelling rapid growth
Book notes: The International Monetary Fund: Distinguishing Reality from Rhetoric, by Graham Bird and Dane Rowlands
The book brings valuable rigour to bear in assessing the work of the IMF, but suffers from a reliance on ageing data in many places, says Jacek Klich
LatAm should pursue regional financial integration – IMF paper
Timing is “ripe” for region to pursue financial integration as means of counterbalancing effects of departing global banks, authors say
Bank of Mexico launches cost-cutting drive
Central bank move follows government austerity drive, and includes a target of a 10% cut to the wage bill
Dutch paper looks at effects of public capital on advanced country growth
Researchers present data on 20 OECD countries
Minneapolis Fed launches new research institute
“Opportunity and inclusive growth institute” will draw on multiple disciplines to extend the Fed’s research
Inflation is ‘simply not a problem’ – Dudley
New York Fed governor not worried about risks to inflation given recent data and expects current economic expansion to continue for the foreseeable future
Eichengreen sees danger in US fiscal stimulus
Veteran economist warns infrastructure spending in the US may prove damaging to both the domestic and global economy, without necessarily fixing secular stagnation
Measurement error a big part of ‘missing growth’ – Philippe Aghion
Statistics fail to capture creative destruction, French academic argues; US researchers say productivity in IT sector points to continued puzzle
News cycle can give estimate of business cycle – Norges Bank paper
Index derived from business newspaper is both more timely and more accurate than traditional business cycle indicators, author says
Palestine Monetary Authority forecasts slowdown amid ‘political impasse’
Authority sees likelihood of “slackening trend” of growth in coming years as Gaza Strip “siege” continues and restrictions affect the West Bank
BIS’s Caruana: fiscal space is ‘slippery’
Fiscal authorities should not overestimate the available room for manoeuvre, as less obvious factors may pose constraints, BIS chief says
IMF paper shows US monetary conditions impact EM leverage
Impact is more pronounced for firms that are dependent on external financing, authors find; sample shows financial conditions have the ability to influence borrowing constraints
RBI paper unpacks India’s non-performing loan troubles
Authors find bank risk-taking is procyclical and the level of non-performing loans responds to the interest rate environment and the overall growth of the economy
Netherlands paper exposes differing capital flows across EMU
Paper examines the mechanism behind divergence of north and south eurozone members, as capital flows caused external imbalances to move in opposite directions
IMF paper links Chinese growth to ‘drastic increase’ in inequality
Rapid growth in recent decades linked to rising economic inequality, with consumption and income inequality co-moving closely
Economic growth on the horizon for Finland, says Liikanen
Improved productivity and higher employment are needed to boost economic growth, says Finnish governor; Bank of Finland’s forecasts show recovery will be slower than in previous cycles
IMF to tackle effects of globalisation in 2017
Fund says it will focus on bringing the benefits of globalisation and technology to a wider section of society, amid a populist backlash against openness
Denmark’s economy set for a boom, says Rohde
Latest release of reports show Danish economy is resilient and set to grow in the next two years; governor Rohde still concerned about house prices
Tajik central bank launches consumer protection push
Plan could create stability and growth if it is successful, but resource constraints are a challenge, National Bank of Tajikistan says
OECD expects growth boost from Trump infrastructure plans
Organisation says “well targeted” public spending could help economies escape slow growth, though it warns protectionism might undo the benefits