Forecasting
30 years of forecasting: have central banks learned anything?
Forecasting models are constantly being upgraded, but forecast errors are still persistent. What more can central banks do?
RBA sheds light on new ‘Martin’ macro model
Large-scale “macroeconometric” model designed to balance flexibility and theoretical rigour
BdF paper looks at FOMC hawks and doves
Predictions of rate-setters with hawkish reputations often biased towards higher inflation – researcher
The IMF should adopt a ‘real SDR’
The creation of a vibrant market in SDR linked to commodity prices could create a powerful new monetary anchor, argues Warren Coats
BDF paper presents model for larger stress-tests
Model can be used to analyse impact of macro-prudential measures, authors say
ECB paper models eurozone’s vulnerabilities
Model can be used to predict build-up of major macroeconomic imbalances, researchers say
Hurricane forecasting has ‘significant effects’ on financial markets – Fed
Cutting forecast errors could reduce additional volatility, researchers say
‘Night-time luminosity’ can shed light on growth – RBI paper
Satellite data is useful as a high-frequency indicator of economic activity, authors find
Proposal to axe Phillips curve triggers controversy
“One cannot just ignore an equation,” retorts Olivier Blanchard
Fed researchers gauge tightening from balance sheet normalisation
Tightening is ‘modest’ compared to accommodation provided by asset purchases, researchers find
Climate change will hit US growth hard – Dallas Fed study
US growth could fare worse than China’s with projected temperature rises, researchers find
British lawmakers ask BoE for latest Brexit analysis
Publication of previous analysis led to angry criticism by UK politicians
BoI paper presents new method for eurozone inflation forecasts
Model works well to predict inflation using data from bloc’s four largest economies, authors say
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Trinidad and Tobago prime minister ridicules central bank’s migrant figures
Acting PM says he has “no idea” how central bank estimated cost of migrant crisis
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
Time for resilience
Events that impact markets have made it crucial to build resilient portfolios that are aware of downside risks. BlackRock explores the importance of protection in downturn scenarios for reserve managers.
Central banks urged to take four key climate actions
Network for Greening the Financial System releases its first comprehensive report
Namibia’s central bank slashes economic growth forecast
Bank of Namibia reduces predicted GDP growth to just 0.3%
Google data can underpin eurozone GDP nowcasts – Banque de France paper
Researchers say method is particularly useful when official data is unavailable
‘Does the Fed know more about the economy?’ asks San Francisco Fed
Researcher compares Fed and private sector growth forecasts
RBNZ paper seeks high-speed labour market indicator
“Midas” approach can help build picture of current state of labour markets, say economists
Major economies outside eurozone to ‘modestly’ decelerate – ECB
Slow growth rates since the “great recession” may point to fall in potential growth, say researchers
Book notes: Finance and philosophy, by Alex J Pollock
A readable and useful book that provides much food for thought, and should be read widely by economists and policy-makers