Forecasting
Micro variables are best warning signs for smaller Italian banks – BoI
Bank of Italy presents early-warning system for crises in less significant lenders
Lack of accurate data poses challenges for cash forecasting
Anonymity of cash makes it hard to track as a payment instrument, panel agrees
Interview: Jussi Kangas on the future of cash
Bank of Finland adviser says it’s challenging to keep the cash cycle efficient as usage falls
BoJ minutes show disagreement over outlook
Not all members agree on how low 10-year yields should be
Riksbank’s Jansson warned of inflation disappointment at hike meeting
Deputy governor voted against the policy rate hike in December
Icelandic central bank questions reform proposals
Publishing rate paths may not work as intended, external MPC members warn
RBA authors try to estimate banknotes’ whereabouts
Information is sparse on the period between a banknote’s issuance and its destruction
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says central banks have changed dramatically since 2008, but more work may be needed to develop new models
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Bank of Mexico opens second banknote printing plant
Existing facility has reached capacity and cannot keep up with banknote demand, says governor
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Bank of Canada publishes 30 years of staff forecasts
Online database “further step” in transparency efforts, deputy governor Wilkins says
CBRT ups inflation forecast 10 percentage points
Leap in forecast reflects dramatic overshooting due to lira weakness
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Podcast: Arthur Turrell on agent-based modelling
The Bank of England economist says ABMs should complement, not replace, other models
Nordhaus and Romer win economics Nobel
Economists specialising in long-run macroeconomic modelling win 2018 Nobel Prize
Uncertainty over monetary policy is ‘recessionary’, researchers say
Forward guidance reduces uncertainty and supports the economy, paper finds
Poloz: ‘digital disruption’ makes it harder to track supply and demand
Technology brings net benefits but also makes the central bank’s work harder, governor says
BoE reveals details of nowcasting approach
Central bank explains approach to generating timely estimates of global GDP
Haldane: ‘superforecasters’ could help central banks
Non-experts could help solve difficult problems for central banks, says Andy Haldane