Forecasting
Fed paper finds ways to boost forecast performance
Adding extra information can help make forecasts more accurate and robust, authors say
BoE’s Haldane warns against ‘complacency’ on inflation
Chief economist says uncertainty is high but risks are “skewed to the upside”
Corporate Services Benchmarks 2021 report – trends in financial reporting and administration
Insights on staffing and salaries, technological automation, data security, rule compliance, gender equality and green office spaces in accounting, audit, HR and administration
IMF chief economist has ‘no concerns’ over inflation in US
Biden plan likely to cause 2.25% inflation, within Fed’s framework, Gopinath says
Central banks look to shockproof models in wake of Covid-19
The Covid-19 crisis caused many central bank models to break down. Economists at the St Louis Fed, Bank of Spain and ECB were quick to innovate and say they will continue testing new tools
Economics Benchmarks 2020 report – executive summary
Shedding light on economics governance, salaries, forecasting, research, publications and more
Paper presents forecasting method for bank losses
Bank of Finland paper attempts to forecast both “expected” and “unexpected” banking losses
The changing data landscape: Part 1
Central Banking speaks to Eyal Rozen, Ramūnas Baravykas and Wanpracha Chaovalitwongse about whether there is a need to change underlying infrastructure to bolster data-driven policy-making
ECB outlines changes to forecasting during Covid
High-frequency data, GDP-at-risk, changes to use of PMI and stringency index all useful, authors say
Economics Benchmarks 2020 – presentation
Central Banking’s economics subject matter specialist Daniel Hinge speaks with Christopher Jeffery about how central bank economists fared in a year where the Covid-19 pandemic upended the usual business of forecasting, analysis and research
Administrative data is most popular alternative data source
Central banks make use of a wide range of non-traditional data sources
Central banks use alt data mainly for research
Almost all respondents make use of alternative data in at least one application
Few central banks forecast policy rates
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights wide variation in variables forecast by central banks
Central banks rotate economics staff frequently
Economists typically spend only small portion of time on own research; opportunities for secondment abound
Climate change on the agenda for most economics departments
Central banks explore a wide range of topics, with some differences between advanced economies and EMEs
Agent-based models remain rare among economics departments
Economics Benchmarks 2020 highlights the varied applications of different model types at central banks
Forecast errors marginally higher for growth than inflation
Data shows contrast between advanced and emerging economies
Semi-structural models are the forecast weapon of choice
Flexible modelling approach comes out on top; around half of central banks include a financial sector
Currency Benchmarks 2020 report – the data behind the cash cycle
Perspectives on staffing, circulation, forecasting, fraud, substrate choice, outsourcing and climate risk
Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods
Measure of uncertainty out-performs even yield curve in short term, researchers say
IMF warns of permanent economic damage from Covid-19
Pandemic could pitch 90 million people back into extreme poverty, fund says in new economic outlook
Haldane makes case against ‘economic anxiety’
Communication essential to avoid caution “morphing into fear and fatalism”, says BoE chief economist
‘Combination’ forecasts can beat standard methods – RBI paper
Traditional inflation-output relationship seems “broken”, authors say
Deep learning can beat other forecast methods – Bank of Korea research
Deep learning models have smaller margin of error than conventional methods, research finds, but data quality is key