Forecasting
Economists tend to perform both policy and research duties
Only around a quarter of economics departments have a pure research function
Higher-denomination banknotes have longer lifespans
Median correlation was 0.9 across 22 central banks
Banknote demand forecast to rise in 2022
Median forecast percentage change was 7.6%, but ranged from -59% to 17%
Banknote forecasting with big data tools on the rise
Three-quarters of central bank currency departments yet to use big data
Poland raises policy rate by 75 basis points
National Bank cites high inflation, which it expects to linger through 2022
Forecaster surveys improve eurozone inflation modelling – ECB paper
Households’ and firms’ expectations do not provide useful data on inflation
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Elizabeth Warren publicly rejects Powell reappointment
Senator calls Jerome Powell “a dangerous man to head up the Fed”
Brainard cites Delta in dovish speech
Fed governor warns “employment is still a bit short of the mark” for taper
BoJ deputy cautions against ‘premature tightening’
Core CPI is not the sole indicator of the BoJ’s monetary policy, says Wakatabe Masazumi
Majority of central banks do not take account of forecast errors
Surveys of inflationary expectations used widely, alongside macroeconomic and market indicators
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Fed may taper asset purchases this year, say FOMC minutes
Federal Reserve staff warn US financial system has “notable” vulnerabilities
Kenyan central bank prepares further monetary policy reforms
Review recommends action to improve modelling, boost interbank market and develop education
Covid and the cloud: a turning point for central banks?
As central banks embrace new technology, providers are jostling to be first in line
Incoming BoE policy-maker says inflation ‘momentum’ is easing
Catherine Mann says price rises appear to be starting to taper off
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
Financial sector still a headache for central bank modellers
Macro-financial links are difficult to integrate into key models, with progress since the global financial crisis slow. But some central banks are making breakthroughs
Fed’s Quarles says time is coming for taper talk
St Louis Fed’s Bullard says it is “too early” to talk of tapering asset purchases
Fed leaders hold dovish line as CPI surges
Board members and regional presidents say inflation and employment goals still far from met
BoJ forecasts weaker inflation but stronger growth
Inflation still negative in Japan but likely to inch above zero this year, forecasts suggest
‘Bottom-up’ approach can improve inflation forecasts – BoE paper
Item-level inflation data contains useful information for forecasting, authors find
Newspaper text can improve growth forecasts – DNB research
Sentiment index can cut errors in short-term forecasts, study finds
Republican senator accuses Fed of politicising research
Toomey demands documents from San Francisco Fed on climate and racial justice studies