Forecasting
US growth remains solid in Q3 – Atlanta Fed
Real-time GDP estimation signals 4.4% growth in current quarter
An informed approach to banknote security and durability
De La Rue explains how its data consultancy service, DLR Analytics, allows central banks to ensure notes in circulation are secure and durable, and offers value for money in spite of increasingly prominent alternative payment solutions. By facilitating…
Published rate path has similar effect to other communication – BIS study
Communication is important, but the “exact form” less so, according to research
Bank of Mauritius lowers inflation forecast
Adverse shocks to food prices are subsiding, central bank says
Brian Wynter on Jamaica’s inflation-targeting transition
Jamaican governor says the end of fiscal dominance plus the creation of a two-way forex market and an effective interest rate policy mechanism essential for “full-fledged” inflation target
New York Fed publishes nowcasting code
Matlab code for estimating a dynamic factor model now available in online repository
Maldives targets forex shortage with new strategic plan
Central bank wants to tackle dollarisation and forex shortages, and may shake up governance
Forecasting yield curve inversion is hard – Cleveland Fed research
Inversions may be a “harbinger of recession” but seeing them coming is difficult, says economist
Podcast: David Vines on how to reform the DSGE model
Oxford University’s David Vines believes the New Keynesian DSGE model is salvageable – but needs some serious work
Fed paper builds dynamic factor model for nowcasting
Model produces “reasonably good” estimates of Ecuadorian GDP and outperforms other models
Bank of Jamaica’s Wynter on the path to inflation targeting
Bank of Jamaica’s governor talks about revamping accountability, communications and operations as the central bank embraces inflation targeting
Dudley says more effort needed in modelling financial factors
“We were nowhere. Now we’re probably at the first or second grade,” says outgoing New York Fed chief
Have central banks created a ‘debt trap’? No, but ...
Tougher regulation has helped ensure extraordinary monetary policy has not caused a dangerous rise in private debt
Fed’s Evans: central bankers not about to be replaced by machines
Chicago Fed president says uncertainty over technological disruption leaves plenty of room for human judgement
BoE MPC split on publishing rate forecasts
Jan Vlieghe argues current system is “unnecessarily complex”, but Carney is sceptical
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend
Real rates likely to move back up – BIS paper
Use of “shadow rate” allows authors to account for the effective lower bound
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
Yield curve can help improve forecasts – RBNZ economists
Yield curve information tends to improve forecasts of economic activity, researchers find
BIS’s da Silva defends DSGE modelling efforts
The models have not performed as badly as critics claim and new research efforts are creating fresh possibilities, says BIS’s deputy general manager
Financial frictions key to DSGE performance – NY Fed paper
Post-crisis period was a harsh testing ground for structural models, but the New York Fed’s DSGE model was at least equal to private forecasts, researchers say
Measuring Venezuela’s hyperinflation
Steve Hanke discusses how economists can make use of high-frequency exchange rate data to track rapid price movements in Venezuela