Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed

Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say

dollar-houses

A fall in planned housing construction can be used to predict a yield curve inversion and subsequent recession, researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis find.

In two economic letters, the researchers examine a number of variables that have traditionally been used to predict recessions, such as manufacturing and construction employment. They also examine the expected housebuilding activity.

They plot the trends in these variables against yield curve inversions to analyse which one

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

Register for Central Banking

All fields are mandatory unless otherwise highlighted

This address will be used to create your account

Most read articles loading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account

.