Research
Inflation falls in the euro area despite stronger growth
Annual price increases expected to fall to 1.3% in January, Eurostat says
Consumption closely tied to house prices in Netherlands – research
Strong correlation attributed to structural features of mortgage market
Risks to China’s financial sector are growing, ECB paper says
Banks are exposed to rapidly growing shadow banking sector, researchers say
Global influence on local financial conditions is stable, research finds
Share of financial fluctuations caused by global factors has not markedly risen in last two decades
Finnish paper examines 19th century Chinese lending
Loans to officials show how banks can enforce repayment despite hostile legal environment
Central bank communications risk circularity, says BIS paper
Policy communications influence market prices and market prices influence policy, warn Stephen Morris and Hyun Song Shin
Income convergence in reverse among original euro members, research says
Fall in income disparities halted soon after 2002 and started to increase after financial crisis
Rebased ‘Maddison’ data reshapes economic history
New approach to measuring GDP per capita generates fresh insights from the long-run growth database
Liberalising services trade could tackle imbalances – BoE paper
Finding ways of reducing barriers to services trade could substantially cut imbalances
Fed paper models risk-taking channel of monetary policy
Model in which monetary expansion increases risk-taking appears to fit with the data
Higher liquidity levels can reduce banks’ funding costs, research finds
Doubling the liquid asset ratio is found to reduce the costs of insurance against default by 24.4%
IMF chief economist warns against ‘complacency’
Recent economic upturn should not be viewed as “new normal”, Obstfeld says, arguing policymakers should be looking to shore up defences
BIS paper: unconventional policies may have depressed natural rate
Economists find shifts in estimates of the natural rate co-move with unexpected changes in unconventional policy
Spanish paper analyses determinants of private saving
Fiscal, demographic, financial and income effects are key, researchers find
Financial regulations have been procyclical historically – research
Regulations tend to weaken during economic booms and strengthen with crisis
Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
BoE economists challenge conventional wisdom on yield curve
Steeper curve may not be as good for bank profitability as widely believed
Central banks lack ‘firepower’ to combat financial crises, says report
Without interest rate cuts available, the next financial crisis could be much “longer and deeper”, Global Risk Report says
Macroeconomists should integrate climate change data into their models, research finds
Paper calls for the use of scientific data on weather and the prediction of extreme climate events
Banking ‘deserts’ do not explain financial exclusion – NY Fed economists
Data shows absence of nearby banks fails to explain “unbanked” share of the population
Combined nowcasts can improve GDP estimates – paper
Paper compares performance of nowcast models in estimating GDP from 2016–2015
Policymakers should increase credit to ‘single-bank firms’ – paper
Researchers examine “unique natural experiment” of 2012 change to ECB’s QE policies
BIS paper explores effects of global factors on inflation
Authors find impact of global factors is mainly temporary, but the effects appear more significant for countries without long-established inflation targets
Central bank projections of target variables most influential - paper
Paper examines the impact of central bank forecasts and forward guidance on private sector projections, concluding most firms use them primarily as monetary policy indicators