Research
US debt and delinquency exceed pre-crisis levels – research
After five years of deleveraging, US households started to increase their debts in 2013
BoE paper studies interest rates across eight centuries
In July 2016, the global risk-free rate hit its lowest level since at least 1273, according to a new extra-long-term dataset
US income inequality boosted by top 0.01% – research
Income via “pass-through businesses” is a great contributor to top inequality
Paper highlights disparity in which fields of economics women enter
New York Fed study examines female participation rates in economics through conference case study, suggesting there may be barriers for women entering finance
BoE paper examines regulation spillover effects
Case study analyses effect of Spanish balance sheet regulation on Mexico’s economy, showing housing credit contracted
RBA needs representative for the poor – religious group
The proposed new board member would help the central bank understand the effect monetary policy has on the poor, says group
Fiscal policy shocks amplified by accommodative monetary policy – paper
IMF research analyses impact of government spending spillovers, noting effects are amplified in countries with interest rates near the lower bound
FSI paper offers lessons from Asia for IFRS 9 transition
Jurisdictions may wish to draw on Asian approach to provisioning when moving to IFRS 9
Colombian banking sector not at risk despite homogeneity – paper
Economist examines diversity of Colombian banking sector and notes “distance” between banks is low; lending and funding portfolios are most similar, author says
Riksbank simulates a payments crisis scenario
Central bank deems offline payments and withdrawals a suitable alternative to credit cards
BoE paper sheds light on global policy transmission
Comparison of UK and Hong Kong based on bank-level data finds evidence of both portfolio and funding effects
Stressed banks may hamper deleveraging in eurozone periphery – ECB paper
Researchers use data on more than 400,000 companies and 900 banks from seven eurozone countries
Swing pricing can help ease liquidity pressure – BIS paper
Open-ended mutual funds can mitigate the risk of “self-fulfilling” runs by using the pricing technique, researchers say
Fed policy has had bigger impact on global liquidity since 2009
A 25bp rate cut causes a cross-border lending growth to rise of two percentage points, versus 0.8 before the crisis, researchers find
Firms with greater liquidity needs benefit more from higher public debt – research
The positive effect of government debt on industry stems from domestic debt, not external debt, author finds
Bank of Canada paper studies capital control motivations
Researcher designs policy rule to study whether capital controls are imposed with “mercantilist” or “macro-prudential” motivations
More communication may hamper monetary policy, paper says
Independence and bigger MPCs may convey confusing messages and provoke forecast errors
Global factor playing bigger role in commodity prices, researchers say
“Single global factor” likely to be linked to demand, Banque de France paper finds
China’s deleveraging efforts pose global financial risks, research says
A sudden financial shock may imperil demand, trade and commodity prices
Bank of Portugal expects stronger growth in 2017
Exports are expected to boost GDP growth to 2.5% in 2017, up from 1.5% in 2016
Disagreement over inflation expectations weakens monetary policy – Bundesbank paper
Research uses data from Fed’s survey of professional forecasters from 1968 to 2017
Payments evolution will result in bank business model changes
Mid-sized banks will have to transform business models in order to remain relevant, says Swift, as fintech and globalisation threaten traditional practices
Developing states can improve inflation targeting – IMF paper
The research finds a bias in favour of results in line with the academic consensus
Neural network can beat conventional forecasts – Kansas City Fed research
Deep learning model outperforms Survey of Professional Forecasters at all horizons