Research
Fall in hours worked can flatten Phillips curve, Italian paper says
Changes to “intensive margin of labour utilisation” may make inflation less responsive to employment
Low rates push investors to seek risk abroad – BIS paper
Authors find that low rates at home drive risk-taking overseas and the effect accelerates as rates approach zero
Financial initiatives may bypass people with lower financial literacy, paper says
Reforms in Israel designed to benefit the whole population did not reach some groups
Central Bank of Brazil survey shows poor savings habits
More than half of respondents had no spare earnings over past year to put aside, which could put them at risk if “unforeseen expenses” arise
BIS paper asks what makes emerging market banks profitable
Both bank-specific and economy-wide factors affect banks’ profitability, authors find
BoE paper outlines big-data-based early warning indicator
Text mining approach seeks to capture how narratives can drive action in financial markets
Older workforce will reduce Danish growth, central bank says
Reforms to expand labour supply are needed to offset negative effects of demography
Richmond Fed paper explores Fed’s monetary policy history
The author identifies a lack of consensus on the nature of the monetary regime as a policy weakness
Eurozone countries’ manufacturing sectors are diverging, Italian paper finds
Manufacturing profits rise relative to non-tradables in Germany and Spain, but fall in France and Italy
Public debt in EU countries harms growth, ECB paper argues
Researchers find public debt crowds out investment but private debt is used efficiently
Fed paper studies inequality in three dimensions
Authors find examining three dimensions simultaneously gives new insights
Colombian paper says resolution co-operation is needed in the region
Authors examine how resolution plans have evolved and conclude more work can be done with regard to local systemically important financial institutions and cross-border activities
Demographic changes reduce US labour participation rate
As the baby boomer generation retires, the recovery cannot offset their absence
Economists are misinterpreting ‘Triffin dilemma’, says BIS paper
Michael Bordo and Robert McCauley argue there was nothing certain about the collapse of Bretton Woods, but Triffin’s successful prediction led others to mistakenly reapply his theory
Danish central bank dismisses central bank digital currency
Digital instrument would not make current payment system more efficient, says report, adding introducing such a currency would pit the central bank against commercial institutions
Monetary regimes drive real rates, BIS paper finds
Claudio Borio et al study data going back to 1870 in search of factors pushing down real rates
Fed paper sets out model of financial panics
Mark Gertler, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Andrea Prestipino examine banking panics in a DSGE model
Macro-pru tools helped offset taper tantrum – paper
Macro-prudential measures helped reduce the impact on cross-border lending growth, say authors
UK households pessimistic about fortunes in 2018
Survey published by BoE reveals UK households do not expect an improvement in their financial positions in the coming year
Public spending cuts have bigger multiplier than fiscal stimulus – paper
Research weakens case for expansionary policies, say authors
Paper looks at EU attempt to increase capital supply to SMEs
Measure introduced in CRR has benefited medium but not small businesses, researchers say
Credit no longer supporting Chinese growth – research
China’s economy has become “saturated with credit”, argues IMF research paper, with fiscal stimulus primarily boosting manufacturing
Demography, tech reduce US natural unemployment rate – paper
Baby boomers remain active longer, and older workers record lower levels of unemployment
Early asset purchases much more successful – BIS paper
Authors find effectiveness falls over time as the shock wears off, questioning the value of long-running quantitative easing