Research
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
Growth of US remote payments outpaces in-person transactions
Remote transactions grew faster in volume and value than in-person payments in 2016
RBA paper finds elusive interest rate-investment link
Authors present empirical evidence for inverse relationship between rates and investment
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices
Slowdown of US growth is temporary, Dallas Fed says
Despite weaker growth in Q1, the labour market keeps tightening and demand is solid
Voluntary reserve targets can aid transmission – Fed paper
Voluntary targets could help central banks set policy more effectively
Oil exporters present higher risk of default, researcher says
Researcher says 27 out of 35 oil-exporting countries defaulted on their debt between 1979 and 2010
Dramatic fall in Bitcoin price correlates with introduction of futures, authors argue
Dramatic fall in Bitcoin price correlates with introduction of futures, authors argue
IMF says Ghana should change law to prevent monetary financing
Directors commend recent progress in reducing inflation but call for stronger safeguards
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
Bank of Canada paper offers advice on digital currency policy
Framework designed to help policymakers weigh up various forms of digital money
ECB’s sovereign bond purchases may increase volatility, DNB paper says
Researchers say their findings could have important lessons for “tapering” programmes
High-frequency data could improve GDP estimates – RBI researchers
Initial data releases tend to be revised upwards, the authors find
Party politics may influence German banks’ bond holdings, ECB paper finds
Researchers examine effects of local elections on decisions by local savings banks
Bank of Canada paper analyses benefits of higher inflation target
Success of higher target hinges on use of unconventional monetary policy and the level of real interest rates
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
Swedish paper examines effects of business cycles on employment
Volatile business cycles cut the number of new jobs and employment, Riksbank paper says; analysis uses labour market search model to track effects
Few US low-wage workers progress in labour market – Fed research
Only 5% had a better job within one year, and the group is more likely to become unemployed
US steel tariffs likely to damage labour market – NY Fed research
Exporters who need steel imports face higher input costs, possibly leading to lower employment
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
Higher expenditure in services limits trade growth – Fed paper
Growth of trade in 1990s and 2000s may be anomalous, researchers say
Satellite night-time light data could forecast US exports – Fed paper
Night-time lights offer a quick and accurate picture of economic activity, researchers say
Fed forecasts overcompensate for trend deviations, paper says
Federal Reserve tends to “overpredict” growth when the economy is running below trend