Big data can give valuable labour market signal – Fed paper
High-frequency private payroll data is useful in forecasting the labour market, researchers find
Use of high-frequency payroll data can “substantially” improve forecasts of the US labour market, according to a working paper published recently by the Federal Reserve.
The team of researchers, from the Fed and the University of Michigan, make use of private payroll microdata gathered by ADP, a firm that processes payrolls for around 20% of US private sector employment. The data is much more timely than official statistics, and appears “quite representative” of the US labour market, the
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