Recession
BoJ paper builds model of secular stagnation
Authors find scrapping the idea of a single representative household allows New Keynesian models to portray secular stagnation – and a high inflation target fixes the problem
ECB research flags signs of Spanish decoupling
Recent recessions appear to have caused Spain’s economy to diverge from those of other major eurozone countries, working paper warns
BoE wartime minutes show sharp contrast between Court of then and now
Minutes from 1914-1946 show an evolving Court of Directors, but one radically different from today; the latest release covers both World Wars and the Great Depression
The ‘Great Moderation' shows no sign of ending, Spanish paper finds
The great recession did not mark an end to the great moderation whose low volatility could be hampering a recovery, according to a new paper
Massive stimulus saved China from ‘great recession'
The rest of the world could have avoided recession too, had other governments dared implement such a ‘bold and powerful' stimulus package, St. Louis Fed paper suggests
Caruana outlines path to recovery from global balance sheet recession
BIS general manager says global economy requires co-ordinated monetary, prudential and fiscal policies in order to recover from the recession caused by financial boom and bust
Asian decoupling a figment of the great moderation, says BIS paper
Evidence of Asia's economic decoupling from the rest of the world was a symptom of low co-movement during tranquil economic times, which ended with the arrival of the financial crisis
Bundesbank research seeks to disentangle recession and depression
Discussion paper isolates unique features of depressions and booms to separate them out from recessions and expansions; results suggest recent ‘Great Recession’ was not a depression
Falling asset prices 'significantly associated' with onset of G-7 recessions
IMF working paper examining the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries finds equity price drops are larger and more frequent than house price drops
Fiscal multiplier tends to double in times of crisis, Bank of Portugal paper shows
The paper analyses the size of short-run fiscal multipliers in both normal and crisis times
‘Belief-twisting' macro shocks can reverberate through generations, research finds
Banque de France researcher examines how households' expectations can take decades to recover after a macroeconomic shock
ECB researcher views liquidity shocks through enhanced DGE lens
Model aims to more accurately capture equity premia, finding that this amplifies liquidity shocks and explains a ‘significant fraction’ of business cycle fluctuations
Fed research paper finds uncertainty more damaging at the zero lower bound
New paper finds the zero lower bound has exacerbated the effect of uncertainty in the ‘Great Recession'
Book notes: The Great Recession: Market Failure or Policy Failure?
This is a hugely important book that should be read by all central bankers, bank supervisors, politicians and newspaper editors
BIS paper examines link between low growth and recessions
Bank for International Settlements research studies relationship between low growth and recession in the US; finds some growth patterns can forecast a sharp decline in GDP
Bank of Canada paper studies risk and debt maturity
Working paper finds firms facing higher volatility tend to issue debt with a longer maturity; increase in maturity period accelerates during a recession
Book notes: The Money Trap
Robert Pringle’s new book is driven by a sense of missionary zeal
Thailand blames floods and ‘likely’ eurozone recession for rate cut
Bank of Thailand drops benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%; says recession now "likely" in the eurozone
IMF paper identifies new approach to forecasting recessions
Fund study says forecasts for recessions can be improved by adopting formal methods to select data
Fed liquidity helped US escape Great Recession: NY Fed paper
New York Federal Reserve study says Fed liquidity policies helped economy avert another Great Depression
Recessions and banking crises are strongly interdependent: BoE paper
Bank of England study co-authored by Martin Weale identifies useful indicators that can help predict banking crises
Regaining confidence essential to euro crisis solution: Finland’s Liikanen
Bank of Finland governor Erkki Liikanen says implementation of European Financial Stability Facility good first step to restoring credibility
Early monetary exit risks return to recession: KC fed paper
Kansas City Federal Reserve study shows an early monetary policy exit can lead to a double-dip recession