Macroeconomics
Bank of Canada’s Maryam Haghighi on quantum computing in central banks
The director of data science talks about post-quantum encryption, payments simulation and optimisation problems, and how the quantum work is happening in a multidisciplinary way
Bernanke to lead BoE review of inflation forecasting
Former Federal Reserve chair will work with Bank of England officials
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
World Bank releases country income classifications
Seven countries promoted, while Jordan falls a category due to population growth
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
Eurozone carbon tax hike would cause small GDP fall, paper finds
Raising tax to rate consistent with net zero would create only transient inflation, researchers say
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
Robert Lucas, 1937–2023
Nobel Prize-winner became famous for “revolutionary” work on rational expectations
US household debt passes $17 trillion
Mortgage originations fall to lowest level since 2014
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
Romer and Romer ask ‘does monetary policy matter?’ – again
Study based on “narrative approach” predicts major impact from recent Fed tightening
ECB paper looks at borrower-based macro-pru limits
Households’ resilience and banks’ capital ratios improved by caps on borrowing
Weather affects eurozone inflation, ECB paper finds
Bloc’s four biggest economies respond differently to changes in temperature and variability
Global economy will be ‘anaemic’ – IMF
Inflation falling, but central banks will only reach targets over 2024 and 2025
Bank of Israel warns political turmoil could hit GDP
Central bank slows cycle with 25bp hike, raising key rate to 4.5%
Rates round-up: Kenya raises rates to highest since 2018
Sarb adds 50bp more as economy struggles; Zimbabwe cuts 1,000bp; Mozambique holds
Banknotes: January to March 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Norway and Iceland raise rates as inflation stays high
Iceland’s governor warns of wage-price spiral and says economy is overheating