Macroeconomics
More communication may hamper monetary policy, paper says
Independence and bigger MPCs may convey confusing messages and provoke forecast errors
Disagreement over inflation expectations weakens monetary policy – Bundesbank paper
Research uses data from Fed’s survey of professional forecasters from 1968 to 2017
Data shows growing medium-term risk for global economy – IMF
Researchers assess three types of financial data as predictors of GDP growth risk
SNB’s Jordan praises John Taylor legacy
The governor values how the Taylor rule has provided policy guidance, becoming an important benchmark
Only 30% probability of eurozone inflation hitting target in next year, paper says
Italian researchers present composite index based on 15 indicators of price dynamics
Benoît Cœuré: exchange rate pass-through has fallen for eurozone
ECB board member calls for reconsideration of IS curve modelling
Spanish paper looks at sectoral comovement and monetary policy
Monetary policy shocks have greater effects when industries experience comovement - researchers say
IMF official says Mexico’s outlook seems bright
First deputy director Lipton says sound macroeconomic management has put the country in a strong position, despite a sharp rise in inflation and uncertainty surrounding trade relations
New Keynesian DGSE models need financial spillover channels – ECB paper
Models without powerful financial spillover channels will be “misleading”- researchers
IMF economist builds agent-based banking system model
Model captures the diversity of agents and the use of rules of thumb; the author says the modular nature allows “straightforward” enhancements
The ECB must reform Target2 to make it sustainable
Target2 has emerged as the eurozone’s financing entity for ballooning structural balance-of-payments gaps. The present system is unsustainable and needs reform, says Philip Turner
‘Home bias’ in expectations heightens shocks – paper
Researchers present a model where domestic variables shape expectations
Poorly designed macro-pru leads to ‘leakages’, says Turkish working paper
Macro-pru should be designed so firms cannot “bypass” regulations implemented during positive global liquidity shocks; generally policies are effective in controlling credit
Paper examines effects of concentration of exports
Bank of Spain researchers examine 12 eurozone countries
French paper looks at impact of budget-neutral fiscal changes
Benefits and costs of budget-neutral changes “not equally distributed across agents”
Capital deepening ‘virtually absent’ in US and eurozone – ECB
US and eurozone have seen major falls in net investment, an ECB article says
Trade costs limit effects of internal devaluations – ECB paper
Researcher says trade costs explain Greek failure to boost exports
Sri Lanka must be more competitive, central bank argues
Annual report for 2016 proposes host of reforms for improving Sri Lanka’s global competitiveness, warning country missed “many” opportunities to become developed nation
Paper takes novel approach to identifying monetary policy shocks
Researcher combines dynamic factor model with changes to financial instruments
Paper examines how sticky investment prices affect DGSE model
Findings bring the model in line with growth accounting exercises, the researcher says
BoE’s Vlieghe: good policy is more than accurate forecasting
MPC member says doctors cannot forecast heart attacks, but are still pretty useful before and after the event
‘Ambitious’ capital markets union necessary – Constâncio
Better eurozone capital markets would smooth regional shocks, ECB vice-president says
Finnish paper presents two explanations for eurozone weakness
Paper looks at fall in natural interest rate and output rate shocks
Spanish paper proposes new measures for economic recoveries
Researchers apply new tests to data on US post-war expansions