Macroeconomics
Latest restructuring boosts the PBoC’s regulatory clout
Hui Feng says the restructuring of the PBoC carries “profound implications” for the central bank’s role in policy-making
Monetary policy must respond aggressively to persistent shocks – BoI paper
Researchers model economy where central bank has less information than private firms
Negative rates could have sped up US recovery – San Fran Fed paper
Output gap could have been reduced by as much as half compared to actual figures, researcher says
Only Fed could respond to fresh downturn, Axel Weber says
Most central banks have no room for manoeuvre, says former Bundesbank president
US equity prices affect consumer and business confidence, researcher finds
Results highlight risks to macroeconomy of recent equity slump
Book notes: EuroTragedy, by Ashoka Mody
The former International Monetary Fund insider elegantly tells the story of the creation of the currency that has defied economics, warning that it could get “worse, much worse”
Denmark intervenes to maintain euro peg
A rate hike is “very likely” if intervention continues, analyst says
Conventional models beat machine learning in predicting crises, paper finds
Bundesbank paper contrasts performance of logit approach to machine learning
2018: The year in review
The past year marked a return to instability, but also saw some innovations among central banks
Causes of liquidity traps are ‘crucial’ to policy response – BdF paper
Liquidity traps caused by investor deleveraging may not respond to QE, researchers say
Google’s data tool has potential for countries with data gaps – IMF research
Authors explore how search queries can be used to track human behaviour, which could be used to map macroeconomic indicators
Book notes: Macroprudential policy and practice, edited by Paul Mizen, Margarita Rubio and Philip Turner
An important overview of the current state of thinking about macro-prudential policy, but uncertainties remain about the current allocation of financial stability responsibilities
Angola improves data transparency with new hub
Statistics deemed “critical” by the International Monetary Fund will be published in one place
Finnish regulators need more macro-pru, deputy governor says
Current toolkit is not sufficient to deal with rising levels of household indebtedness
Cleveland Fed launches centre for inflation research
Bank plans to make its inflation conference annual rather than bi-annual
Bank lending standards can worsen financial frictions, ECB paper finds
Model shows tighter lending standards can damage productivity, researcher argues
French banking crisis of 1930s far worse than previously thought – BdF paper
Central bank policies worsened crisis, Banque de France paper says
Bank of Canada steps up financial stability research efforts
Economy faces risks from in-household debt, housing and cyber attacks, senior policy adviser says
Podcast: Crisis lessons
Central banks may have learned the lessons of the crisis, but are they fully on top of the risks?
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
Fed vice-chair backs further tightening
Clarida says data likely to support further rate hikes as Mester warns US is “beyond full employment”