Macroeconomics
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices
Government spending can have low multipliers at ZLB – Bank of Italy paper
Model’s results are in line with recent empirical evidence, researchers say
Andreas Dombret on ECB policy, deposit insurance and Basel III
The Deutsche Bundesbank executive board member speaks about exiting QE, the viability of European deposit insurance, the German banking system and doing a deal on Basel III
Bundesbank paper asks ‘how far can we forecast?’
Statistical tests imply forecasts typically become uninformative after just a few quarters
Liquidity build-ups may cause emerging market instability – Bundesbank paper
Bundesbank paper examines effects of advanced economies’ liquidity on emerging economies
The IFF China Report 2018: Chinese financial system reform
China is focusing greater effort in tackling the build-up of risks in its banking and financial system, while also seeking to ensure credit is more effectively distributed in the real economy. At the same time it is has embraced fintech but policymakers…
BoE paper investigates uncertainty around elections
Elections help to isolate macroeconomic and financial uncertainty, author argues
More older people and women joining labour force, RBNZ paper finds
New Zealand’s labour force participation has grown since 2000 and reached an all-time high in 2017
BoE paper hunts for shifts in forecast accuracy
Authors outline new method of detecting when forecasts break down
ECB paper proposes eurozone stabilisation policy based on trade changes
Scheme would avoid moral hazard or permanent transfers from one country, authors argue
Bank of Canada building systems back-up outside Ottawa – annual report
Cyber risk is becoming “a top priority”, Poloz says
ECB’s open market operations often raise banks’ liquidity – paper
Asset “haircuts” imposed by ECB often smaller than those in repo markets – researchers
Tighter policy policy may increase financial instability, researcher says
Higher rates may pressure banks’ balance sheets and increase assets held by money market funds, says paper published by San Francisco Fed
High corporate debt harms Italy’s productivity, IMF research says
Policymakers should look at discouraging structural corporate debt, researchers say
Global uncertainty increases financial interconnections – paper
Researchers use a network approach to evaluate financial interconnectedness
Bank of Korea unveils changes to its DSGE model
The existing model’s accuracy was reduced following structural changes in the economy
Standard measures understate slack in European labour markets – ECB paper
Researchers use survey data from 24 countries to track effects of sovereign debt crisis
‘Intensified’ tax competition will affect euro area – research
Latest ECB bulletin shows “possible erosion of tax bases” in the EU, after recent US tax reforms
Economists need to better understand macrofinancial links – BIS paper
Stijn Claessens and Ayhan Kose call for “new generation of models” among other research to solve ongoing puzzles
Veteran economists weigh in on ‘rebuilding’ macro theory
Economists including Olivier Blanchard, Andy Haldane and Simon Wren-Lewis tackle the question of how – and whether – to save the DSGE model
One big bank falls short of ECB’s capital requirements
One bank falls short and a second comes close, although five banks failed the test in 2016
Google’s Hal Varian on how technology is changing economics
Google’s chief economist talks to Christopher Jeffery about how big data and machine learning are facilitating changes in economic thinking; discusses the impact technical breakthroughs may have for central banks
Paper: foreign fund inflows raised US pre-crisis risk-taking
The Bank of Italy paper correlates data on foreign inflows with four indicators of risk