Inflation
Riksbank paper warns forecasts often overestimate inflation
Forecasting error has grown in recent years and tends to overstate inflation, paper says, even as first deputy governor says expansionary policy has contributed to rising inflation
Atlanta Fed president focused on consumer spending
Dennis Lockhart says evidence of an increase in consumer spending would give him more confidence that growth is back on track in the United States
IMF paper studies interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries
Economic size, inflation, the quality of bank balance sheets and banking sector concentration influence interest rate spreads in Pacific Island countries, finds working paper
Deeper markets in WAEMU could boost policy transmission
Research published by the IMF finds the transmission of monetary policy is impeded by ‘shallow’ financial markets in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
San Fran Fed research analyses link between inflation targeting and growth
In an economic letter, two researchers find developing economies tend not to experience the same short-term bump in growth rates as advanced economies after adopting a target
Japan shows signs of inflation rebound
Inflation creeps back into positive territory after hitting zero in February, as research by the Bank of Japan suggests inflation may have moved to a new, higher trend
Argentina cabinet chief rejects analysis in IMF report
Argentina needs ‘tighter macroeconomic policies, a weaker exchange rate and less microeconomic distortion,’ argues IMF outlook; cabinet chief dismisses analysis
IMF encourages Tonga to adopt ‘reference rate’ for inflation
IMF recommends the National Reserve Bank of Tonga adopt a reference rate of 3.5%; central bank says it needs to analyse the appropriate level before making the jump
Longer-term inflation expectations pick up in eurozone
In its latest economic bulletin the European Central Bank shows how some measures of expectations, including the five-year inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead, are recovering
Singapore inflation to ease before rising at end of 2015
CPI inflation could be negative on a year-on-year basis for consecutive months, which MAS says reflects ‘falling car prices, housing rentals, and costs of oil-related items’
RBA paper finds only weak support for sticky information Phillips curve
Paper provides ‘first estimates’ of a sticky information Phillips curve for Australia, finding the curve fits poorly with the inflation-targeting era but better in earlier years
Carstens expects Mexican inflation to end year at 3% target
Bank of Mexico governor expects inflation to end the year at 3% target, but does not rule out an interest rate increase if prices start to rise due to a weaker peso
RBNZ hires monetary policy advisers as inflation drops to 15-year low
Graeme Wheeler says advisers ‘bring fresh viewpoints'; assistant governor says monetary policy can do little to influence inflation outcomes in ‘near term'
BoE minutes remind markets not to be complacent
Minutes show MPC firmly positioned for coming rate hike; economists suggest central bank may be warning markets they have overestimated willingness for easing
Kuroda calls for deeper understanding of expectations
Bank of Japan governor wants increased awareness of the mechanism through which inflation expectations are formed to help the design of monetary policy
Praet says onus on governments to ensure permanent recovery
Accommodative monetary policy is ’playing a key role’ in helping return inflation to target, argues Peter Praet, member of the ECB executive board
Nothing magical about targeting 2%, Bernanke says
Former Fed chair calls for further research on ‘alternative intermediate targets’ for monetary policy during IMF panel; will work with hedge fund Citadel as adviser on range of topics
Fed presidents still divided on timing of rate hike
Heads of the Federal Reserve Banks in Atlanta, Boston and Cleveland offer different takes on current economic conditions; all united in desire for more data
Central Bank of Brazil needs to battle inflation, says deputy-in-waiting
Progress in the fight against high inflation ‘is still not enough’, argues Tony Volpon, deputy governor nominee
Singapore dollar ticks up as MAS holds fire
Monetary Authority of Singapore leaves exchange rate policy unchanged despite falling prices in January and February, cites tight labour market
Mozambican central bank balances food import pressures with domestic industry concerns
Bank of Mozambique holds interest rates as it comes under pressure over the value of its currency; accused of artificially propping up the value of the metical
FOMC minutes: Fed cautious about June rate hike
Minutes highlight split in views of those who think rates should rise in June and those who would rather wait; Dudley and Powell give speeches urging care
Brazil’s inflation climbs to 8% despite rate hikes
Annual CPI inflation hit 8.13% in March, the highest since 2003, due to a double-digit hike in energy prices; central bank is expected to continue to raise interest rates
Russia’s Nabiullina dismisses QE possibility
Bank of Russia governor says quantitative easing is not on the table but further rate cuts are likely; sees signs that tough policy stance is working as ruble begins to recover