Inflation
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Carney sees BoE inching towards rate hike
BoE governor says debate over rate hike will ‘come into sharper relief’ around turn of the year, but reiterates upward path will be shallow and any hike is data-dependent
Bank of Canada cuts rates to support ‘complex adjustment’
Central bank says economy needs additional support as it restructures in response to complex impact from oil price shock; fears remain over imbalances in household sector
Yellen bats away calls for simple rules-based policy
Fed chair tells Committee on Financial Services a monetary policy rule based on two economic variables is inappropriate as ‘the world is more complicated than that’
BoE officials say UK may be starting to throw off productivity woes
There are signs the UK may be emerging from the ‘long, dark tunnel’ of weak productivity, officials tell the Treasury Committee; government’s minimum wage plans may be a positive factor
Yellen expects 'lift-off' later this year
Janet Yellen expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate "at some point" in 2015 with full employment "coming closer into view" and inflation on track to return to 2% in the next few years
Weidmann does not see case for higher inflation targets
The Deutsche Bundesbank president points to welfare costs of higher inflation target, and argues in favour of structural reforms that boost productivity and deliver higher trend growth
BoJ paper finds short and long-term expectations are anchored differently
Inflation expectations respond differently to changes in policies and inflation depending on whether they are short- or long-term, researchers find
CNB faces strategy dilemma when it comes to ending exchange rate floor
Vice governor Mojmir Hampl says the Czech National Bank faces dilemma when it comes to removing its FX floor as it does not want to shock markets; communication will be key
Kenyan central bank hikes by 150bp in Njoroge’s first move
Central Bank of Kenya increases key rate for second consecutive month in first meeting with former IMF adviser Patrick Njoroge as governor
Central banks expect South American inflation to stabilise
Inflation rising in several countries in South America, but central bank heads in region suggest it will ‘moderate’ when supply shocks dissipate and exchange rates normalise
Czech board expects strong growth showing
Board members at the Czech National Bank caught off guard by strong growth in first quarter, minutes show, but expect stronger-than-forecasted growth for rest of year
Albanian governor warns of ‘fragile’ inflation
Gent Sejko says supervisory council will likely keep key interest rate low ‘for some quarters ahead’ with inflation forecast to remain below target in 2015
Riksbank cuts key rate and expands QE to curb krona risks
Swedish central bank cuts repo rate to -0.35% and will buy additional 45 billion krona worth of government bonds to prevent stronger currency or Greek collapse from derailing inflation
Fischer warns developing countries may not be ready for inflation targeting
Fed vice-chair tells audience of African central bankers no framework is ‘suitable for all countries for all times’ and cautions against adopting inflation targets before financial markets are ready
Research calls on Fed to replace ‘dot plot’
Working paper published by the IMF suggests publishing a baseline forecast compiled by staff and 'endorsed' by the FOMC as a replacement for individual and anonymous projections
BoJ paper sees signs of structural shift in pricing behaviour
Study finds rising exchange rate pass-through is in large part the result of a change in firms’ pricing behaviour, although why behaviour has changed remains unclear
Chatham House paper tries to quantify Syrian economic breakdown
Devastation from war, displacement of millions and oil and gas production falling into the hands of Isis and Kurdish forces have combined to create economic disaster
BoE’s Cunliffe sees more efficient UK firms in coming years
Deputy governor justifies MPC forecast that productivity growth will finally pick up in 2016 and 2017, pointing to the potential for efficiency gains within firms as the economy grows
NBER paper seeks better model of trend inflation
James Stock and Mark Watson use disaggregated data on sectoral inflation with time-varying weights, finding this can produce a more accurate model of inflation’s long-term trend
Bank of Thailand cuts forecasts for growth and inflation
Monetary policy report says risks are ‘skewed to the downside’ as central bank lowers its forecasts; MPC was divided over further easing at April meeting
Eurozone recovery set to broaden, says ECB bulletin
Report presents growing body of good news for most eurozone economies as wages and consumption rise, inflation bottoms out and investment begins to return
Fed officials still back 2015 rate hike
Median of latest projections suggests federal funds rate will reach 0.625% by the end of the year; FOMC delivers more upbeat assessment as its keeps policy unchanged
Jordan: SNB does not expect ‘sustained’ price drop
Thomas Jordan says the Swiss central bank does not expect a deflationary spiral as inflation will return to ‘positive territory’ early in 2017