Inflation
IMF: Central banks ‘must' ease if inflation expectations drop
Easing should be conducted through ‘other means' than interest rates if they are at ZLB, Fund argues in WEO update, which downgrades global growth forecast for 2015 to 3.5%
BoJ opinion survey highlights shift in expectations
Survey of public opinion sees Japanese people increasingly pessimistic about the economy as a whole, but there are signs the Bank of Japan’s policy efforts may be paying dividends
UK inflation drops to 0.5%
Consumer price inflation falls to its lowest level since records began, prompting Mark Carney to write his first explanatory letter to the UK chancellor; governor stresses immediate benefits
Prolonged weakness of Mexico’s peso could impact inflation, says central bank deputy
A weakening of the Mexican peso could lead to a pick-up in inflation and ‘should be carefully monitored’, says Manuel Sánchez
Tombini: Central Bank of Brazil to do ‘whatever is necessary’ to hit inflation target
Brazil central bank ‘will do whatever is necessary’ to ensure inflation enters into a ‘long period of decline’ from this year onwards, governor says
Bank of Mexico expects inflation back on target in 2015
Inflation in Mexico ended the year slightly above target, at 4.08%; Agustín Carstens expects it will converge to the goal of 3% ‘from mid-2015’
Belarus central bank hikes key rate by 500bp
National Bank of the Republic of Belarus announces raft of measures to stabilise country's exchange rate; increases policy rate and reinstates currency basket peg
Eurozone inflation goes negative with QE looming
Annual HICP inflation falls to -0.2% in December due largely to plummeting oil prices; expectations rising for ECB to expand asset purchases on January 22
Sri Lanka reduces inflation target range by 200bp
The Central Bank of Sri Lanka will aim to keep inflation between 2% and 4% in 2015, after a fall in prices and in some key commodities. From 2016 on, the bank will aim for 3% to 5%
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
Central Bank of Paraguay reduces inflation target to 4.5%
After keeping inflation around 5% for the past three years, the central bank will now aim to shackle it at 4.5% in 2015 and 2016
Signs of reflation in Japan as Abe sweeps back to power
Tankan survey shows degree of optimism among businesses and potential for rising wages in coming months, although evidence is mixed; Shinzo Abe reclaims supermajority in election
SBP annual report highlights ‘two phase’ year
Pakistan’s economy suffered turbulent spell in 2013, but IMF agreement saw a return to relative stability; central bank praises government for ‘long-awaited’ return to fiscal discipline
Brazil’s central bank lowers expectations of further action
Brazil’s central bank says inflation will enter ‘a long period of decline’ next year, as it looks to guide inflation and interest rate expectations
Bank of Russia raises interest rates by 100bp
Central bank will continue to hike to stem double-digit inflation; growth expected to remain low "until import-substituting industries develop"
Belarus central bank handed 12% inflation target
President of Belarus expects inflation to fall from 20% to 12%, while the central bank simultaneously reduces its policy rate by at least 500 basis points
Spanish working paper explores inflation dynamics
Research considers the impact of different industrial structures on the response of inflation to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks
BoJ’s Sato explains QE dissent
Board member who voted against expansion of QE in October says he already sees a ‘virtuous circle’, meaning more asset purchases bring high risks will little reward
Draghi plans showdown ‘early next year’
Governing council will reassess monetary stimulus in 2015; Draghi says he does not need unanimity to launch quantitative easing
Bank of Canada's Poloz defends language on household imbalances
Governor explains Bank of Canada has not changed its assessment of household imbalances, after describing them as a 'significant risk' to financial stability in policy announcement
Riksbank deputy dismisses criticism of interest rate ‘experiment'
Per Jansson says ‘leaning against the wind' played minor part in recent years' policy discussions; suggests outside predictions of low inflation have been overplayed
South African Reserve Bank reflects on forecasts
Latest monetary policy review analyses the central bank's inflation forecasts between 2003 and 2014, finding they 'marginally' outperform outside efforts
Icelandic research proposes new measure of core inflation
‘Dynamic factor measure' outperforms current core measures in terms of matching the mean of CPI inflation while having lower volatility, argues author
Central Bank of Brazil will not be ‘complacent' with inflation, says governor
Governor Alexandre Tombini offers reassurances the Central Bank of Brazil is working to keep inflation ‘under control’ with annual CPI growth steady around 6.5%