Inflation
Fed communication driving Trinidad and Tobago policy
Trinidad and Tobago MPC cites Fed guidance on interest rates as the ‘most influential factor’ in its decision to tighten monetary policy
Fed leaves door open for rate hike
FOMC statement offers hints that the US labour market is reaching a position where a hike could be possible, indicating interest rates are still expected to rise this year
ECB bulletin: Too early to tell if inflation has turned a corner
Inflation in the eurozone appears to be moving upwards, but strip away transitory factors and the picture becomes much more blurry
Bank of Korea researchers dig into disaggregated data on inflation targeting
Adopting inflation targeting in Korea lowered the mean, volatility and persistence of inflation throughout the country, but a look at disaggregated data reveals more about transmission
BoJ’s Nakaso highlights changing behaviour of firms
Firms are increasingly investing and facing tighter labour market conditions, with record profits and higher wages providing a boost to the economy, but inflation is still stuck low
RBI could see interest rate powers diluted by MPC proposals
Indian government publishes draft law that would establish an MPC dominated by external members; investment bank economist concerned by shortage of potential candidates
IMF paper offers Uruguay advice on money supply targeting
Move to new monetary policy target has proved ‘challenging’ IMF researchers note, offering advice on how to make the framework more effective
IMF urges Bank of Japan to 'stand ready' to up asset purchases
Article IV report says Bank of Japan should improve communication and be prepared to expand easing measures, as weak policy transmission creates a ‘conundrum’
South Africa hikes rate as inflation outlook deteriorates
South African Reserve Bank lifts key rate by 25bp to 6% on a 4-2 vote; Kganyago outlines concerns over potential for a exchange rate-inflation spiral in wake of Fed hike
Philippines central bank expects to hit inflation target
Latest forecasts suggest inflation will return to the lower half of the target range this year, while the risks to the outlook are ‘broadly balanced’
Wheeler hints at more easing as RBNZ cuts again
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts the OCR by 25bp for the second month in a row; Wheeler says further easing "seems likely" despite more favourable inflation outlook
BoE MPC moving towards rate hike, minutes hint
MPC voted unanimously for a rate hold, but ‘a number of members’ believe risks to inflation are becoming ‘skewed to the upside’; appreciation of sterling and global shocks could still delay hike
IMF paper: commodity prices are largely demand-driven
Working paper explores systemic risk, aggregate demand and commodity prices, finding the latter to be largely demand-driven, a conclusion they extend to non-core inflation
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Carney sees BoE inching towards rate hike
BoE governor says debate over rate hike will ‘come into sharper relief’ around turn of the year, but reiterates upward path will be shallow and any hike is data-dependent
Bank of Canada cuts rates to support ‘complex adjustment’
Central bank says economy needs additional support as it restructures in response to complex impact from oil price shock; fears remain over imbalances in household sector
Yellen bats away calls for simple rules-based policy
Fed chair tells Committee on Financial Services a monetary policy rule based on two economic variables is inappropriate as ‘the world is more complicated than that’
BoE officials say UK may be starting to throw off productivity woes
There are signs the UK may be emerging from the ‘long, dark tunnel’ of weak productivity, officials tell the Treasury Committee; government’s minimum wage plans may be a positive factor
Yellen expects 'lift-off' later this year
Janet Yellen expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate "at some point" in 2015 with full employment "coming closer into view" and inflation on track to return to 2% in the next few years
Weidmann does not see case for higher inflation targets
The Deutsche Bundesbank president points to welfare costs of higher inflation target, and argues in favour of structural reforms that boost productivity and deliver higher trend growth
BoJ paper finds short and long-term expectations are anchored differently
Inflation expectations respond differently to changes in policies and inflation depending on whether they are short- or long-term, researchers find
CNB faces strategy dilemma when it comes to ending exchange rate floor
Vice governor Mojmir Hampl says the Czech National Bank faces dilemma when it comes to removing its FX floor as it does not want to shock markets; communication will be key
Kenyan central bank hikes by 150bp in Njoroge’s first move
Central Bank of Kenya increases key rate for second consecutive month in first meeting with former IMF adviser Patrick Njoroge as governor
Central banks expect South American inflation to stabilise
Inflation rising in several countries in South America, but central bank heads in region suggest it will ‘moderate’ when supply shocks dissipate and exchange rates normalise