Inflation
Weakest economic data in years puts pressure on PBoC
Chinese rate cuts ‘imminent' as some of the worst figures since the financial crisis indicate economic slowdown is sharper than predicted, analysts say
Poland publishes forecasts behind ‘final’ rate cut
Economics Institute within central bank lowers forecast for inflation in 2015 to -0.5%, down from 1% in November; MPC says last week’s cut ‘concludes’ its easing cycle
Central Bank of Honduras revises inflation target to 5.5%
After signing an economic agreement with the IMF last year, and in consideration of lower oil prices, the Central Bank of Honduras has adjusted its inflation target for 2015 by 50 basis points
RBA’s Lowe sees altered transmission mechanism behind low inflation
Inflation remaining stubbornly low despite record levels of monetary stimulus seems to be down to changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, deputy governor says
ECB reveals flexibility in QE programme
European Central Bank releases modalities of asset purchase programme; Draghi delivers upbeat press conference underpinned by positive staff projections
French paper models flattening Philips curve
Working paper develops a two-country, new-Keynesian model to replicate the flattening of the curve in developed countries over the past 25 years, a trend widely attributed to globalisation
Ongoing reports of recovery add little to FOMC debate
Latest Beige Book shows economic activity expanding at a steady pace, while Esther George and Charles Evans take different sides in the FOMC’s inflation debate
RBI delivers second rate cut with inflation racing to target
The Reserve Bank of India surprised markets once again with an unscheduled rate cut of its key rate; analysts say this reduction shows trust in the government to maintain fiscal discipline
Fed officials debate research on equilibrium real rates
Research presented at US Monetary Policy Forum says uncertainty around equilibrium rate means the Fed should delay tightening policy; Loretta Mester and William Dudley discuss findings
Key rate hiked to 30% in Ukraine to stop currency slump
Ukraine’s central bank hikes interest rate to its highest level in 15 years, as part of a set of measures to combat the slump in the currency and battle inflation
RBI gets formal inflation target
Reserve Bank of India tasked with getting inflation below 6% by January and handed a 4% target to chase from then; governor retains sole responsibility for setting monetary policy
Richmond Fed article questions use of dove and hawk to describe policy-makers
Article in Richmond Fed’s economic magazine argues the terms simplify the disagreements on the FOMC; says the idea of a split between two camps is ‘likely to persist’
PBoC steps up easing with another rate cut
China’s central bank cuts interest rates for the second time in less than four months, in a sign it is becoming more aggressive in combating economic weakness
BoJ’s Nakaso: More to be done to anchor expectations
Deputy governor points to ‘green shoots’ with regard to inflation and wage expectations but warns more work must be done to anchor them at the 2% target
Kuroda says oil shock has not thrown recovery off track
Inflation was nearing the target before being knocked down by the oil price collapse, BoJ governor says, insisting Japan’s ‘deflationary mind-set’ is still steadily fading
Kazakh central bank expects to hit inflation target if oil averages $50 or $60
National Bank of Kazakhstan publishes two forecasts with different assumptions about oil price; plans to limit market volatility by expanding monetary instruments
Paper tackles US inflation puzzle with new Phillips curve
Authors of research published by IMF find core inflation movements can be explained by anchored expectations and short-term unemployment “stories”
Poloz calls for ‘reinvention’ of central banking
Bank of Canada researching changes to its inflation targeting regime; Poloz asks how best how to incorporate financial stability into framework and avoid ZLB episodes
Yellen sheds light on lift-off communication
Fed chair discusses how the Federal Reserve will communicate its thought process on policy normalisation; rejects FOMC reform and Audit the Fed bill in congressional hearing
Israel and Turkey cut rates, hinting at further easing
Bank of Israel eases with one eye on the appreciating shekel; Turkey stands by its ‘cautious’ stance on interest rate cuts with 25bp reduction
Italian paper: Reforms could lead to earlier exit from ZLB
Working paper examines the impact of competition-friendly reforms in the service sector across the eurozone, finding it could help boost inflation providing investment responds
Azerbaijan devalues currency by a third
Central bank follows up last week’s decision to abandon its peg in favour of a currency basket by devaluing the manat by 34% against the US dollar
IMF eyes stronger transmission mechanism in Paraguay
Latest staff report advises the Paraguayan authorities to promote a ‘well-functioning’ interbank market and create stronger incentives for ‘de-dollarisation’ in the economy
Canadian deputy reveals new indicator of inflation expectations
Bank of Canada launches new household survey; Agathe Côté says the 'power of our new tool will truly reveal itself’ after a couple of years, but early indications are ‘promising’