Inflation
Czech board expects strong growth showing
Board members at the Czech National Bank caught off guard by strong growth in first quarter, minutes show, but expect stronger-than-forecasted growth for rest of year
Albanian governor warns of ‘fragile’ inflation
Gent Sejko says supervisory council will likely keep key interest rate low ‘for some quarters ahead’ with inflation forecast to remain below target in 2015
Riksbank cuts key rate and expands QE to curb krona risks
Swedish central bank cuts repo rate to -0.35% and will buy additional 45 billion krona worth of government bonds to prevent stronger currency or Greek collapse from derailing inflation
Fischer warns developing countries may not be ready for inflation targeting
Fed vice-chair tells audience of African central bankers no framework is ‘suitable for all countries for all times’ and cautions against adopting inflation targets before financial markets are ready
Research calls on Fed to replace ‘dot plot’
Working paper published by the IMF suggests publishing a baseline forecast compiled by staff and 'endorsed' by the FOMC as a replacement for individual and anonymous projections
BoJ paper sees signs of structural shift in pricing behaviour
Study finds rising exchange rate pass-through is in large part the result of a change in firms’ pricing behaviour, although why behaviour has changed remains unclear
Chatham House paper tries to quantify Syrian economic breakdown
Devastation from war, displacement of millions and oil and gas production falling into the hands of Isis and Kurdish forces have combined to create economic disaster
BoE’s Cunliffe sees more efficient UK firms in coming years
Deputy governor justifies MPC forecast that productivity growth will finally pick up in 2016 and 2017, pointing to the potential for efficiency gains within firms as the economy grows
NBER paper seeks better model of trend inflation
James Stock and Mark Watson use disaggregated data on sectoral inflation with time-varying weights, finding this can produce a more accurate model of inflation’s long-term trend
Bank of Thailand cuts forecasts for growth and inflation
Monetary policy report says risks are ‘skewed to the downside’ as central bank lowers its forecasts; MPC was divided over further easing at April meeting
Eurozone recovery set to broaden, says ECB bulletin
Report presents growing body of good news for most eurozone economies as wages and consumption rise, inflation bottoms out and investment begins to return
Fed officials still back 2015 rate hike
Median of latest projections suggests federal funds rate will reach 0.625% by the end of the year; FOMC delivers more upbeat assessment as its keeps policy unchanged
Jordan: SNB does not expect ‘sustained’ price drop
Thomas Jordan says the Swiss central bank does not expect a deflationary spiral as inflation will return to ‘positive territory’ early in 2017
Nabiullina: Bringing down inflation still Bank of Russia’s main concern
Central bank governor tells parliament that inflation is still the ‘priority task’ despite announcing plans to rebuild forex reserves earlier in the month
Governor wants freer thinking at 65-year-old Bank of Korea
Juyeol Lee hints at coming shake-up, calling for openness to ‘creative ideas’ as central bank prepares to set new inflation target
BoE’s McCafferty says UK not yet in ‘true deflation’
External MPC member says ‘dangerous but rare’ deflation has not taken hold in the UK, although inflation expectations have shifted down slightly
Sarb deputy wary of weaker currency with inflation rising
Daniel Mminele warns any ‘significant weakening’ in the South African rand in response to a Federal Reserve rate hike could cause inflation outlook to deteriorate
Virus outbreak prompts Bank of Korea rate cut
Deadly Mers virus a key factor behind central bank’s decision to ease policy as economic recovery shows signs of faltering
Kiwi slides as RBNZ cuts OCR to boost demand
Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts key rate to 3.25% and suggests further easing could follow; kiwi drops to lowest level against US dollar in almost five years in aftermath
Iceland raises rates by 50bp and warns more will follow
Central bank says it will take ‘appropriate countervailing measures’ if the increase in government revenues from failed bank asset tax is used to stimulate the economy
BoJ’s Sato says QQE becoming harder to implement
Takehiro Sato warns easing programme risks undermining confidence in central bank policy by eroding fiscal discipline, making interest rates harder to control
IMF tells Fed to wait until 2016 to hike rates
Fund says keeping rates lower for longer would provide ‘valuable insurance’ against disinflation; encourages Fed to hold more press conferences and publish quarterly monetary policy report
Draghi warns high volatility here to stay
Government bond yields continue to climb as Draghi says ‘we should get used to periods of higher volatility’ with interest rates on the floor; ECB keeps policy unchanged
Hungarian central bank to adopt new policy rate
From September it will use the rate on a new deposit facility with a longer maturity, to encourage banks to park funds with the government instead of the central bank