Inflation
Market and survey-based measures of expectations provide useful information, ECB paper says
Survey-based and market-based measures of inflation expectations provide useful information on future eurozone price increases, a European Central Bank paper argues
BoE researchers model trend inflation with ambiguity
Researchers develop a model featuring positive trend inflation determined in part by the degree of ambiguity around central bank actions
Riksbank paper examines mixed forecast performance
Researchers find the central bank has tended to be overly optimistic on foreign economic performance, but makes similar errors to other institutions
No fireworks as Bank of England keeps rate options open
Rates remain on hold as BoE balances domestic strength with signs of weakness overseas; MPC hints a few forces could prompt an earlier hike than markets are predicting
Improved inflation outlook gives Icelandic central bank room for manoeuvre
Shallower path for near-term inflation allows central bank to make smaller rate hike than planned, but the longer-term picture still shows inflation overshooting the target
Inflation outcomes should not be sole criteria for judging performance, says RBNZ's McDermott
Assistant governor's comments come after policy reversal by RBNZ amid falling global commodity prices; staff article emphasises 'ex-ante' evaluation of monetary policy decisions
Zambia hikes by 300bp as inflation almost doubles
Bank of Zambia increases policy rate to 15.5% in an effort to keep inflation expectations anchored in single digits; annual inflation jumps to 14.3% in October as kwacha slides
Economists challenge foundations of monetary economics
‘Neo-Fisherian’ approaches use standard New-Keynesian models to show that cutting interest rates will produce lower, not higher, inflation – and the result is surprisingly difficult to overturn
BoJ holds QQE fire but pushes back inflation forecast
Bank of Japan leaves asset purchase programme unchanged despite downward revision of outlook; central bank now predicts inflation target will be reached in second half of fiscal 2016
Turkish central bank may act as inflation forecasts rise
Declining exchange rates and rising food prices have pushed inflation expectations upwards, monetary policy committee says; governor says he will raise interest rates if necessary
Riksbank unleashes further easing
Central bank hopes extended asset purchase programme and commitment to keep rates lower for even longer will help reinforce a gradual upward trend in growth and inflation
Venezuelan central bank sues US data website
Central bank accuses black market data website of artificially raising the rate of inflation in the country
Threshold-based forward guidance can work at the zero lower bound, BoE paper says
Private sector industries have to understand how threshold-based forward guidance will be used in order for it to be effective, BoE working paper notes
RBI advisers supported rate cut, minutes show
Minutes of technical advisory committee meeting show six of seven members recommended a cut as inflation in India had fallen ‘dramatically’ and growth proved elusive
Draghi sets stage for December easing
Governing council could adjust asset purchases or cut rates further at next meeting, ECB president says; staff tasked with examining different options as they were before QE launch
Poloz sees risks to inflation outlook as ‘roughly balanced’ as Canada holds rates
Canadian governor highlights ‘building’ economic momentum after central bank holds its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%
Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds
Researchers find economic forecasting accuracy improves when based on models that tie together the unemployment rate with inflation in services
No clear evidence for always using trend inflation in models, paper says
Adding positive steady-state inflation to new Keynesian DSGE models improves analysis of high-inflation periods but otherwise does not significantly alter results, paper argues
Further rate hikes likely as Chile raises 25bp
Central bank lifts rate to 3.25% in first move in four years; analysts suggest the move is an effort to rein in expectations
RBI economists attempt to pin down India’s natural rate
Researchers lend support to monetary policy by estimating natural interest rate; results imply the policy rate is now set more appropriately for tackling inflation
MAS eases policy in first move since January
Singapore's central bank cuts rate at which currency is allowed to strengthen amid Asia slowdown; keeps width and centre of policy band unchanged
RBNZ governor reiterates further easing ‘seems likely’
Graeme Wheeler says the central bank is ‘conscious’ of the impact low rates can have on housing demand; RBNZ has cut OCR by 75bp since June
Eurozone policy-makers and researchers puzzled by trends in long-term inflation expectations
Eurozone inflation more strongly influenced by inflation expectations, the ECB notes; two central bank working papers say data shows unexpected changes
BoE’s new MPC member grilled on financial assets
Treasury Committee questions Gertjan Vlieghe on real or perceived conflict of interest; Ian McCafferty justifies view on rate hike in reappointment hearing