Inflation
Venezuelan central bank sues US data website
Central bank accuses black market data website of artificially raising the rate of inflation in the country
Threshold-based forward guidance can work at the zero lower bound, BoE paper says
Private sector industries have to understand how threshold-based forward guidance will be used in order for it to be effective, BoE working paper notes
RBI advisers supported rate cut, minutes show
Minutes of technical advisory committee meeting show six of seven members recommended a cut as inflation in India had fallen ‘dramatically’ and growth proved elusive
Draghi sets stage for December easing
Governing council could adjust asset purchases or cut rates further at next meeting, ECB president says; staff tasked with examining different options as they were before QE launch
Poloz sees risks to inflation outlook as ‘roughly balanced’ as Canada holds rates
Canadian governor highlights ‘building’ economic momentum after central bank holds its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%
Models using service inflation better at predicting economic trends, Cleveland Fed paper finds
Researchers find economic forecasting accuracy improves when based on models that tie together the unemployment rate with inflation in services
No clear evidence for always using trend inflation in models, paper says
Adding positive steady-state inflation to new Keynesian DSGE models improves analysis of high-inflation periods but otherwise does not significantly alter results, paper argues
Further rate hikes likely as Chile raises 25bp
Central bank lifts rate to 3.25% in first move in four years; analysts suggest the move is an effort to rein in expectations
RBI economists attempt to pin down India’s natural rate
Researchers lend support to monetary policy by estimating natural interest rate; results imply the policy rate is now set more appropriately for tackling inflation
MAS eases policy in first move since January
Singapore's central bank cuts rate at which currency is allowed to strengthen amid Asia slowdown; keeps width and centre of policy band unchanged
RBNZ governor reiterates further easing ‘seems likely’
Graeme Wheeler says the central bank is ‘conscious’ of the impact low rates can have on housing demand; RBNZ has cut OCR by 75bp since June
Eurozone policy-makers and researchers puzzled by trends in long-term inflation expectations
Eurozone inflation more strongly influenced by inflation expectations, the ECB notes; two central bank working papers say data shows unexpected changes
BoE’s new MPC member grilled on financial assets
Treasury Committee questions Gertjan Vlieghe on real or perceived conflict of interest; Ian McCafferty justifies view on rate hike in reappointment hearing
Macro-prudential tools can influence inflation, Menon says
MAS managing director outlines interaction of prudential tools and monetary policy, saying Singapore deliberately used macro-prudential tools to help lower inflation
Fed’s Brainard counsels patience on interest rates
Governor Lael Brainard warns there could be ‘some distance to go’ before reaching full employment in the US, and questions the impact of further labour market improvements on inflation
Swedish economists add voices to criticism of leaning against the wind
Current and former Riksbank deputy governors Martin Flodén and Lars Svensson warn against the large rate hikes necessary to address financial stability concerns
Poloz explores ‘risk management’ in policy framework
Bank of Canada governor says monetary policy cannot always be used to lean against the wind, but financial stability impact can be taken into account on occasion
Fed encouraged to act as FOMC members eye new data
Stanley Fischer reveals encouragement from emerging market officials to ‘just do it’ and raise rates; Dennis Lockhart singles out importance of consumer data in coming weeks
FOMC minutes spell out inflation concerns
Several members were concerned disinflationary pressure from low oil prices and a strong dollar could persist longer than anticipated and ‘delay or diminish’ the expected rise in inflation
Minneapolis Fed president open to cutting rates
Narayana Kocherlakota stresses room for improvement in US labour market, noting low inflation could give the Fed space to pursue more accommodative policy
ECB watching oil and euro closely for inflation risks
Deflation has become less likely in the eurozone since the implementation of quantitative easing, but falling oil prices are pressing on inflation expectations, governing council says
BoE turns attention to risk-free rate as markets push out expectation of hike
MPC mulling the question of whether lower rate expectations will provide enough stimulus to overcome growing risks from emerging markets; rates stay on hold
Economists expected lower inflation under Yellen than Bernanke, SNB paper finds
Sample of economists from ‘reputable academic and policy institutions’ on aggregate expected slightly lower inflation under Yellen compared to if Bernanke had stayed on
Colombia concerned by loosening inflation expectations
Unexpected increase in inflation spurs Colombian central bank into action, as it raises key rate by 25 basis points; observers divided over importance of growth risks