Research
Oil prices feed through to core inflation – Fed paper
Research finds changes in the oil price have a small but statistically significant impact on core inflation
Fed’s liquidity policies more restrictive than other central banks
NY Fed article compares the Fed’s collateral and liquidity frameworks to other major central banks, finding the US central bank is much more limited in its operations
Lithuanian paper examines interplay between European housing and credit
Panel-like econometrics may give misleading results, authors warn
Bank of Colombia paper charts fiscal multipliers in developing countries
Stronger fiscal-monetary co-ordination in developing economies during periods of expansion would extract more value from stimulus; fiscal multipliers higher in fixed exchange rate regimes
Fed paper studies how to tackle the lower bound
Simple policy rules lead to inflation falling “systematically” short of 2% target; pursuing higher inflation may help but comes at a cost
IMF explores ways to reform US mortgage finance
The research questions whether the US model of homeownership through government-backed fixed rate mortgages is sustainable in an increasingly unequal society
RBI launches economics blog
“Mint Street Memos” comprise brief reports and analysis from RBI economists; first post studies beneficial effects of demonetisation for “financialisation” of savings
DNB paper looks at Fed’s use of credit swap lines
Federal Reserve used currency swap lines to calm markets in worst of crisis, paper says
Banks need to tailor data strategies to clients, paper says
Dutch customers are open to sharing their payments data to enhance security, but do not want banks to sell it on, research finds
Credit spreads’ limited use as short-term predictors – paper
Researcher examines the accuracy of three sets of credit spreads
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
Shadow banks ‘interfere’ with macro-pru – paper
Institutional function should determine whether institutions are regulated, say researchers
Spanish paper looks at business cycle’s effects on industry
Industries are not moving uniformly to cohesion with the business cycle, says paper
Fintech has potential to lower cost of financial services – paper
BIS research highlights continued inefficiencies in current financial services system; fintech could alleviate costs but only if regulation permits it to do so
Fiscal multipliers significantly higher at effective lower bound, paper says
Researchers use data from 17 advanced economies for the period of 1960–2015
Paper’s forecasting technique using Markov-switching models
Results outperform Fed’s survey of professional forecasters, says Bank of Spain paper
IMF research explores effects of lighter rule on US banks
Republicans in Congress claim Dodd-Frank increases complexity and hampers small banks’ lending
BoE working paper examines ‘exorbitant privilege’ benefits
Economist analyses whether the UK enjoyed the same benefits as the US when it was the pre-eminent issuer of a global reserve currency; findings show fundamental differences between the two in terms of investment patterns
Fed paper: corporate bond buying can misallocate capital
Capital misallocation effects can mean corporate bond purchase schemes underperform QE based on sovereign bonds, say economists
IMF deems negative rates to have had ‘no major side effects’
IMF paper explores the impact of negative interest rates on bank behaviour, concluding the transmission to money markets and bond yields has worked well
San Francisco Fed economist explores methods to forecast interest rates
Michael Bauer aims to forecast interest rates based on the current level and long-run trend, and a narrative linking both
Banks not ‘boring’ before Glass-Steagall repeal, New York Fed economist says
There is little evidence of an explosion in non-traditional activity after Glass-Steagall was dropped, despite the conventional narrative, economist says
Tax cuts should focus on income from capital, French paper argues
Cutting taxation on labour is less effective in boosting growth, researchers say
IMF explores ways to increase profitability of Italy’s banking sector
Italian banks have operated in a low-growth environment since early 1990s; eurozone interest rates at record lows since global financial crisis