Research
Dallas Fed paper looks at impact of tech shocks
Researchers exploit forecast data for “more precise” identification of technology shocks
‘Night-time luminosity’ can shed light on growth – RBI paper
Satellite data is useful as a high-frequency indicator of economic activity, authors find
Two-thirds of countries failing to meet global standards on inflation – IMF paper
More than half the world has not updated CPI weighting in the last five years, researchers find
Sovereign default risk affects bank assets – Bank of Italy paper
Researchers look at data on bank assets from 15 countries from 2004–18
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Fed researchers gauge tightening from balance sheet normalisation
Tightening is ‘modest’ compared to accommodation provided by asset purchases, researchers find
BIS paper highlights new channel for Mundellian ‘dilemma’
Authors weigh financial channel as explanation for why trilemma has become dilemma
Raising CCyBs could have ‘greatly mitigated’ 2008 crisis – St Louis Fed paper
Policy-makers could have avoided a fall in aggregate consumption of 21%, researcher finds
Climate change will hit US growth hard – Dallas Fed study
US growth could fare worse than China’s with projected temperature rises, researchers find
Canadian collateral can withstand crisis-level systemic risk – BoC paper
Trading by bank customers could be a potential indicator of future crisis, researcher says
Policy uncertainty can magnify cost shocks – BoI paper
Lack of clarity over inflation targets increases effects of cost-push shocks on output, researchers say
Bank of Spain launches data lab for research
Economists now have access to micro-data on the country’s non-financial firms
Unexpected market news weakens fund liquidity – paper
Findings important for understanding systemic risk of firms during times of stress, researchers say
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
Cash usage keeps falling in Netherlands
In 2018, 37% of purchases were paid for in cash, down from 41% in 2017
BoE paper models stress in non-bank sector
Authors highlight importance of “tipping points”, which can lead to amplification of stress
Reforms have cut Latin American unemployment – IMF paper
But informal employment and inequality remain high, researcher says
BIS paper proposes network model of global contagion
Authors create a network of CDS linkages to assess contagion risk in the financial system
BoI paper presents new method for eurozone inflation forecasts
Model works well to predict inflation using data from bloc’s four largest economies, authors say
IMF paper analyses Philippines inflation
Longer delay in tightening rates would have led to higher inflation, researchers find
Cleveland Fed paper looks for reasons for flatter Phillips curve
Monetary policy responses to “output deviations” may be key factor, researcher argues
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional monetary policy; extra policy tool is necessary to overcome credit shocks
Regulators need ‘stick and carrot’ to deal with NPLs – BoI paper
Optimal policy combines capital transfers and NPL disposals to wipe out owners’ rents – researchers
BIS paper looks at low returns on safe assets
Changing risk perceptions explain growing wedge between safe and risky assets, authors say