Research
ECB paper presents new approach to modelling LTV caps
Agent-based model’s results show “subprime” segment to eurozone housing markets – researchers
Local policy impact can be dispersed in currency unions – Bank of Spain research
Study analyses effect of large post-crisis fiscal stimulus implemented in Spain
Bank of Spain paper examines post-crisis US bond markets
Volatility is less persistent but more frequent than before global financial crisis, researchers find
Trade tensions set to harm long-term US growth – IMF paper
Output would decline even if China voluntarily limits its exports to the US
Loose financial conditions predict output gap – NY Fed paper
Policy-makers can make significant welfare gains by greater focus on financial conditions – researchers
BIS papers weigh up ongoing risks to global stability
Papers from 2018 AGM include contributions from Forbes, Tucker, Gourinchas and Rey
‘O-SII’ limits decreased risky lending – ECB paper
Lending to risky borrowers fell without lasting impact on growth rates, researchers say
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Sovereign debt restructuring does not hamper returns long-term – IMF paper
Investors who sell during crises fare much worse than those who buy and hold
Energy prices drive inflation interdependence – research
Core inflation is much less co-ordinated across advanced economies, Bank of Spain paper finds
Mobile financial services bring firms into formal economy - BdF paper
New technologies cuts size of ‘informal’ economy in developing world, researchers find
US bank competition weaker than thought – St Louis Fed paper
Measuring off-balance sheet actives shows some banks have 10% more pricing power, says researcher
Optimal capital may be higher than previously thought – Basel Committee
Study finds net long-term benefits to higher capital levels
Effects of CBDC on lending depend on level of competition – BoC researchers
CBDC could increase bank lending if banks have some market power, researchers say
US company debt and euro public debt are global financial risks – IMF
China’s non-bank financial firms are also a major vulnerability, fund says
Bundesbank paper presents new model of banks’ risk-taking
Traditional models make error in assuming that banks choose fixed-size portfolios, authors argue
‘Green bonds’ are helping firms clean up their act – NBER paper
But bonds only have a significant impact if they are independently certified, researcher finds
Akerlof warns economics is biased against methods seen as ‘soft’
Nobel prize-winner says bias leads to “sins of omission” in economic research
Construction trends can predict yield curve inversions – St Louis Fed
Housebuilding expectations should be considered when forecasting economic activity, researchers say
Riksbank investigates adoption of T2S for securities trading
Central bank thinks securities settlement must move towards faster, round-the-clock operations
NY Fed researchers develop new natural rate of unemployment measure
Estimate is 50–60 basis points lower than other mainstream estimates
High-frequency trading can harm market liquidity – ECB paper
Researcher finds increased competition can lead to rise in speculative strategies
CBDC could raise bank funding costs – Philadelphia Fed
Choosing an appropriate interest rate could help alleviate problem, say researchers
Import-intensive sectors see higher exchange rate pass-through
Changes in Colombian peso exchange rate against dollar have small effect on exports