Research
IMF paper tracks Asian authorities’ responses to volatile capital flows
Monetary policy typically responds to several variables in pursuit of greater stability, analysis finds
St Louis Fed researchers deconstruct US inflation
Slower growth in energy, healthcare and housing prices contributed to lower inflation in recent expansion, researchers find
Fed paper looks at US spillovers to foreign government debt yields
Fed has “economically large” impact on some dollar-denominated bond yields, researchers find
DNB paper examines global data on ‘prop trading’
Proprietary trading in securities is linked to decreased loan supply, researchers say
BdF paper uses professional forecasts to improve BVAR model
Authors use “entropic tilting and soft conditioning” to incorporate survey data into model
BdF paper looks at digital currency and remuneration
Remuneration is key consideration for design of central bank-issued digital currencies, paper argues
Bank of Spain paper looks at supply chains’ impact on investment
Greater value chain integration has strong impact on foreign and domestic investment, paper finds
Exchange rate shocks gaining importance for eurozone inflation – research
Core inflation less influenced by exogenous factors, Bank of Spain research paper says
Large forex dealers are key to asset pricing – Bundesbank paper
Capital ratios of large forex dealers are important in explaining asset price movements, paper says
Strong dollar can be bad for trade – BIS paper
Textbook theory does not always hold due to the effect of global value chains, authors say
Atlanta Fed publishes 1,300-page history of the Fed
Document reveals early concerns Fed creation would lead to politics in banking or banking in politics
DNB paper looks at how regulation affects systemic risk
Restrictions on entry increased systemic risk before financial crisis, researchers say
Interbank networks may be too decentralised – BoE paper
Model of how networks develop implies laissez-faire may not be optimum policy
Loan-to-value analysis may be incomplete as macro-pru tool – research
Loan to purchase price, and loan service to income may be more robust analytical alternatives
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Falls in uncertainty may warn of coming crises – Bundesbank paper
Researchers attempt to quantify relationship between rising confidence and early signs of crisis
Italian firms may rely too much on bank credit – research
Bank of Italy paper brings together different data sources to examine firms’ sources of capital
RBA paper looks at responses to liquidity crises
Penalty rates to contain risk-taking are more effective on long-term loans, study finds
Cyber attacks on financial firms rise by 37% – survey
Eighty-eight per cent of participants report domain name system attacks over the last year
ECB paper looks at market expectations of Fed policy
“Monetary policy slope” predicts changes in stock markets and professional forecasts – researchers
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
Japan’s public debt financing strategy may be unsustainable – research
Public sector financing of its own borrowing hit by losses at public companies and volatility
Machine learning can help spot bank distress – BoE paper
Use of confidential data helps catch distress early, and ML can cope with complexity, authors say
Eurozone bail-in regime has not widened bond spreads – ECB paper
Wider financial and economic environment play key role in determining bond spreads – researcher