Research
Bank bailouts increase firms’ default risk – Bundesbank paper
Paper looks at effects on non-financial firms of recent German bank defaults
Some financial market fragmentation helps stability – BIS paper
Different types of market fragmentation have different trade-offs, researcher says
IMF paper tests conventional wisdom on economic and financial cycles
World cycles have not become stronger during globalisation period, researchers find
EMEs can resist spillovers with prudential policy – BoE paper
Some prudential policies work better than others, researchers find
Expectations and term premia both drive spillovers – BIS paper
Different components have greater impacts in advanced and emerging economies, authors find
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
ECB’s OMT and banking union rekindled financial integration – research
Subprime mortgage crisis interrupted progressively higher integration from 1995–2007
Fed has a risk management problem – Richmond Fed president
“The economy is giving us conflicting signals,” Tom Barkin says
Finnish paper looks at Chinese currency swap agreements
Bilateral swap agreements increase settlement of trade transactions in renminbi – researchers
Floating exchange rates cut inflation in Caribbean – IMF paper
Survey finds greater financial openness in Caribbean countries is associated with lower inflation
BIS authors detail new data on non-bank exposures
Banks have highly concentrated exposures to non-financial counterparties, researchers say
Banque de France research takes fresh look at eurozone interbank markets
Secured interbank markets not bounded by ECB’s deposit facility rate, results show
Mortgage caps can be higher for insured borrowers – DNB paper
Loan-level data from Netherlands shows insurance cuts risk of non-performance, say researchers
Asymmetric inflation targets improve welfare – Chicago Fed paper
Fed can remove deflationary bias by adopting asymmetric target, model suggests
Fed researchers model impact of recent trade uncertainty
Trade uncertainty could account for a 1–2% decline in US investment, researchers say
BoE paper explores collateral’s impact on labour market
Collateral value affects hiring decisions by small businesses, authors find
Inflation models must pay more attention to globalisation – Brookings paper
Global factors more important for some inflation measures since 2008 financial crisis, researcher finds
BoE paper measures ‘market-implied’ systemic risk
“Shadow capital adequacy” shows how default risk impacts capital assessments
Economists use payments data to build high-speed indicator
Team says transaction-based metric gives quick insight into consumer spending
BoE paper: ‘tails’ matter when studying global financial cycle
Authors look to the tails of the distribution to understand exchange rate risk in the global cycle
BIS paper: DLT opens possibility of ‘embedded supervision’
Distributed ledger data would be useful for supervision, but must be trustworthy, author says
Bank of Israel proposes measures to stabilise social security system
Benefit payments set to rise faster than GDP in the coming decades, warns central bank
Central banks are ‘riders on the storm’, say Jordà and Taylor
Central banks control less than half the overall variation in interest rates, authors find
BoE paper looks at how to halt ‘cascade’ of settlement fails
“Buy-in” process could help to avoid system-wide “gridlock”, but design is challenging