Research
‘Uncertainty shocks’ can do long-term harm – BoE paper
Authors outline a general equilibrium model to show uncertainty can have long-run effects
Free trade agreement to boost growth in Africa – IMF research
Smaller economies are more likely to benefit from more open trade conditions in the continent
Limited access to finance increased business exits in Great Recession – St Louis Fed
Illiquidity may have played a greater role than insolvency in business exits, researchers find
Kenya’s rate controls caused ‘collapse’ in credit – IMF paper
Caps undermined central bank’s control over signalling policy stance, researchers find
BIS research documents high concentration of cross-border credit
Big banks dominate global credit, which matters for global spillovers, authors say
Regulations lower rates and cause imbalances – BoE paper
Research into repo market highlights some unintended consequences of post-crisis regulations
US corporates ‘substantially’ more leveraged than thought – Dallas Fed researchers
Using a broader measure than debt-to-GDP, levels are almost double, they say
Universal deposit insurance lowers consumer fears – Bundesbank paper
Authors study major change in Germany’s bank deposit provision
Fiscal policy needed to tackle next crisis – Riksbank research
Low interest rates limits monetary policy influence, but opens the door to sustainable fiscal stimulus
CBDC need not pose stability threat – paper
Markus Brunnermeier and Dirk Niepelt say some arguments about CBDC are “questionable”
Local shocks may outweigh global factors for EMEs – ECB paper
US monetary shocks less important than much recent literature argues, researchers say
BIS paper models dollar’s debt dominance
“Debt view” of dollar dominance has empirical support, authors say
BIS paper finds cross-border links between monetary and macro-pru policy
Authors discover “significant interactions” between policies
Open and closed economy central banks react differently to inflation – research
Some economies respond more strongly to certain variables, Fernando Leibovici says
Bank of Italy paper looks at impact of long-term rates
Long-term rates have significant impact on Italian banks’ risk appetite, researchers find
New IMF data reveals non-banks drive capital flows when global risks rise
Evidence can be used to analyse how changes in industry mix can impact capital flow volatility, researchers say
Trade protection leads to recessions in the long run – Bank of Canada researcher
Some policies can provide temporary booms in the short run, Yuko Imura finds
Risk of hitting ZLB in next three years is low – San Francisco Fed paper
ZLB should not be a concern for monetary policy at this stage, researcher says
Changes in uncertainty can affect US long-term rates – ECB paper
Researchers say “uncertainty shocks” may account for about one-half of long-run rate changes
Tighter loan-to-value ratios have stronger impact than a reduction
Other regulations might impact the effectiveness of LTV limits, the authors say
San Francisco Fed researcher seeks to improve Phillips curve
Introducing an “interaction variable” can increase predictive performance, researcher says
Market power is a ‘puzzle’, BoE team says
Micro and macro evidence do not seem to match up, the authors say
Macro-prudential and monetary policy work well together – ECB paper
Monetary policy can be used to cushion shocks caused by counter-cyclical buffers, researchers find
Williams favours average inflation targeting in new research
New York Fed president analyses three groups of inflation-targeting regimes