Economics
Pandemic fiscal support had rapid inflationary impact – NBER paper
Inflationary impact of support to consumers was “quick to ensue, but moderate”, authors find
Text analysis of news spots Chinese financial risk, says paper
Researchers’ model uses machine learning to assess thousands of newspaper articles
IMF says global economy may be at ‘turning point’
China and India expected to drive half of global growth this year, but other economies are lagging
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Global liquidity driven higher by derivatives and euro lending
BIS statistics show contraction in dollar lending to emerging and developing economies
‘Neglect’ of money growth may have harmed forecasts – paper
Study finds forecasters make larger errors when money growth is highest
Haiti receives $105 million emergency loan
IMF urges central bank to cut back monetary financing
Japanese inflation hits 41-year high
Inflation now double the BoJ’s target, but officials are not convinced it will last
“Make-up” strategies may boost monetary policy, says paper
Price-level and average inflation targeting regimes stabilise import-related inflation, researchers find
Mark-ups made up more than 50% of US inflation – Kansas City Fed
Rise in mark-ups may point to opportunistic pricing by firms
US CPI inflation falls again
Falling fuel prices drive down index for sixth straight month
Cook suggests US may need to change inflation models
Fed governor believes inflation on path to 2% but tight labour market remains upside risk
IMF’s Gopinath rewrites classic open-economy model
Mundell-Fleming model’s assumptions make it less useful for modern policy-making, economist says
South Asia’s rapid progress under threat, IMF warns
Millions have escaped poverty but “bold” policies are needed to avoid backsliding
Tunisian governor warns country needs IMF deal after latest hike
Country faces rising inflation as foreign exchange dwindles and political crisis continues
Palestine weathers ‘complex crises’ but faces further slowdown
Unemployment remains high and the government’s budget under severe stress
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – executive summary
Key findings of the 2022 report, including model choices, governance structures and data use
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022, as some longer-term trends in governance structures and research agendas emerged from the data
China needs dollar reserves to bolster renminbi – Eichengreen
Authorities must reassure global markets to make renminbi reserve currency, paper argues
IMF approves long-term resilience loan for Rwanda
Fund urges “more decisive monetary tightening”
Inflation falls more than expected ahead of Fed meeting
Inflation expectations also drop, prompting calls for caution from the Fed
ECB paper examines effects of real rates on banks’ fragility
Level of real interest rates determines whether price or scale effects predominates, researchers find
Earnings power of economists remains above GDP per capita
Emerging market professionals earn lowest median salary, but incomes still more than double national average
Most institutions use time-series models for forecasting
Use of models differs across jurisdictions by income size