Economics
US inflation: it’s mainly global
Steve Kamin analyses the pre-existing conditions that impacted inflation in the US and elsewhere
ECB paper examines equity markets’ treatment of climate risk
Researchers look at public perceptions, investors’ judgement and firms’ risk premia
Mismeasurement may cause ‘missing-investment puzzle’ – BoE’s Bailey
Rise in intangibles could explain apparent fall in investment despite stable returns, governor says
US experts believe inflation will fall, eventually
CPI inflation surges above consensus forecasts, but economists expect a turning point soon
Tanzania’s current account deficit more than doubles YoY
Deficit reached $3.7 billion in May, as country turns to IMF for support
Modelling the short-term economic impacts of climate change
Econometric models can give central banks a clearer picture of short-term climate impacts, says Stephen Millard
US risks slipping back into secular stagnation, says Rajan
Fed has “good chance” of defeating inflation but US economy has deeper problems, economist says
Bank of Canada deputy stresses heterogeneity’s role in monetary policy
Debt may complicate tightening cycle, as Canadian consumer inflation expectations rise
US core inflation continues decline
Headline PCE inflation flat as food and energy inflation remains buoyant
Top central bankers admit inflation models fell short
Reliance on Phillips curve and demand-driven models may have created blind spots
Banking systems’ long-term systemic risk has grown – ECB paper
Assets became safer but banking systems’ failures were more harmful, analysis finds
Fed’s Evans and Bullard downplay recession risks
Both presidents looking to increase the policy rate to around 3.5% by the end of the year
IMF paper proposes ‘policy space index’
Authors try to quantify countries’ room to respond to a “black swan” event
Understanding informal remittances
Better tracking of remittance flows could give central banks valuable insights to support policy, say Deepali Fernandes, Amil Aneja and Azar Sultanov
ECB paper argues for existence of ‘liquidity coverage channel’
Researchers analyse impact of eurozone central banks’ actions after onset of Covid-19 pandemic
US inflation expectations inch higher
New York Fed survey finds rise in expectations at one-year horizon, but not at longer term
FSB and IMF wrap up post-crisis data gaps initiative
Some issues remain despite “significant progress” since 2009, report finds
Holding the line: the right response to war and Covid
Jagjit Chadha offers advice to policy-makers struggling to navigate between economic shocks
Book notes: Two hundred years of muddling through, by Duncan Weldon
Insights into UK economic history offer lessons for today’s policy-makers
Atlanta Fed revises growth estimate downward
This quarter has the possibility of officially beginning a US recession
Central banks and UN working to improve remittance data
Flows are critical income sources for many economies, but data is often limited
Fed paper argues capitalism killed the Phillips curve
Shift in the balance of power between capital and labour likely to hold down inflation, authors find