Economics
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
Zambia agrees foreign debt deal
Government agrees to repay faster if IMF assesses its ability to do so has risen
Eurozone carbon tax hike would cause small GDP fall, paper finds
Raising tax to rate consistent with net zero would create only transient inflation, researchers say
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Central banks’ pandemic interventions averaged 6% of GDP
IMF paper finds relief measures were three times bigger than in global financial crisis
AI may demand ‘entirely new’ regulatory approach – IMF’s Gopinath
Deputy managing director says artificial intelligence risks “broad negative effect” on employment
Eurozone consumer inflation expectations down ‘significantly’
ECB data shows median 12 months ahead expectations fell to 4.1% in April
Banknotes: April to June 2023
A round-up of news and salient issues that have affected central bankers in the past three months
Central banks need short-run climate models – BdF governor
Governments may push central banks into ineffective climate action, Sarb governor warns
Eurozone inflation declines sharply in May
Core inflation declines from 5.6% to 5.3%
Hank model reveals monetary non-neutrality
Inequality and zero lower bound suggest monetary policy can impact long-term real rates
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
Bernanke and Blanchard reassess causes of inflation surge
Economists who predicted surge misunderstood underlying causes, study finds
‘Robust’ wage growth consistent with disinflation – BIS paper
But firms need to avoid increasing their profit margins, authors find
BoE adjusting main models after forecast misses
Bailey says policy-makers decided to “aim off” main forecast after repeated errors
Financial security of US households ‘fell sharply’ in 2022
Inflation comes first in list of financial worries, Fed survey finds
Bank of Italy expresses concerns over flat tax
Official says policy is typical of emerging markets and could weaken income redistribution
US household debt passes $17 trillion
Mortgage originations fall to lowest level since 2014
Steeper Phillips curve cannot fully explain inflation surge – IMF paper
Structural factors have led to some steepening but it is not the full story, authors say
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say