Economics
Most institutions use time-series models for forecasting
Use of models differs across jurisdictions by income size
Hungary’s Matolcsy calls economic situation ‘near-critical’
Governor blames government as inflation expected to be highest in EU
More than half of institutions favour semi-structural models
Just 35% of institutions include financial sector in key modelling
Housing plays growing role in transmitting ECB policy, paper finds
Labour earnings still most important means of transmission, researchers say
Central banks forecast GDP less accurately than inflation
Over half of central banks reviewed models in a bid to project more accurately
Bank of Thailand governor calls for better inflation model
Phillips curve model under-predicts inflation, argues governor Sethaput
Majority of central banks prefer economists with master’s degree
Economists are sponsored more for training than for PhDs
BIS data shows ‘surge’ in OTC derivatives market value
Near 50% increase in space of six months reflects “elevated uncertainty”, BIS says
Economics teams constitute just a fraction of central banks’ total workforce
Most institutions have more policy economists than research colleagues
Staff with PhDs make up 21.3% of average economics department
Four-fifths of advanced economy institutions sponsor economists to undertake PhD qualification
Bank of Lithuania targets 2025 for data governance overhaul
Central bank moves to “hub-and-spoke” structure as it seeks to streamline reporting and analytics
Central banks judge success of research by number of publications
Inflation and exchange rate most topical issues for central banks
Use of centralised data services increases across institutions
Rise of central data teams has gone hand in hand with greater use of alternative data
Alternative data used at most central banks
Non-traditional data such as Google searches widely used to support research and forecasting
Research economists devote more working time to own projects
On average, own research works consume 25% of policy economists’ working time
Advanced economy institutions tend to produce more papers
Emerging market researchers averaged five papers a year in peer-reviewed journals
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Research agenda determined across multiple levels
Governors and deputy governors give final sign-off on most research publications
Das outlines RBI’s post-Covid research reforms
Central bank has adopted “full information” system to capture economic dynamics
Majority of banks blend research and policy functions
Only one in five jurisdictions restructured economics unit in the past 12 months
Growth and inflation are top forecast indicators
More emerging markets forecast growth and inflation compared with the past year
Argentine central bank debt poses major risks, analyst says
Moody’s analyst says central bank faces macroeconomic crisis as short-term debt rises
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say
Eurozone inflation reaches new record of 10.7%
Energy is main driver, but inflation is rising in all sectors, Eurostat figures show