Unemployment
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
Kansas Fed paper looks at impact of recessions on US workers
Participation rate of “prime-age” workers most likely to vary with business cycle, paper says
Swedish GDP growth beats forecast, adding to bank’s concerns
Inflation remains below the 2% target, despite lower unemployment, leaving the Riksbank reluctant to change course and raise rates before the summer of 2018
Kganyago: monetary policy can't solve South Africa’s structural issues
Governor defends mandate, saying Sarb is focusing on what it “can do”, not “what it would like to do”; no “narrow focus”
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
Inflation expectations down in ECB forecaster survey
Forecasters see inflation falling slightly, despite rising employment and GDP growth
Deregulation aided women entering US labour force – paper
ECB paper finds efforts to open up the credit market from the 1970s to 90s helped reduce the gender gap in the labour force
Barbados government should cut staffing to reduce expenditure – Worrell
Government should aim to reduce its expenditure rather than raise taxes, says former central bank governor; departments should be reorganised to operate with fewer staff
Inflation data causes rift in FOMC
Fed officials discuss whether incoming low inflation data is “transitory” or is a sign of worrying things to come; minutes outline balance sheet unwinding but date remains unknown
Norges Bank study: regional network is supplying useful information
Central bank’s network of contacts is able to deliver better information on growth than other sources, report finds
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Brainard turns cautious on inflation concerns
Lack of wage growth and lower than expected inflation data could slow further monetary easing, says Fed governor; interest rates are likely to rise “soon”
Fed report finds many people left behind by growth
Survey finds nearly a quarter of Americans struggling to pay their bills; problems concentrated in less-educated segments of the population and minority groups
Adopting a dual mandate will not solve South African unemployment – Kganyago
Unemployment problems are caused by structural issues, Sarb governor says; scope for reducing unemployment through monetary policy is “smaller” than people imagine
Deterioration in labour market not yet hitting unemployment – Chile’s Marcel
Chilean governor says self-employment has acted as a “significant buffer” as employment declined; unemployment not yet being affected thanks to “flexibility” of market, governor says
‘Our independence is under threat’ – Yellen
Fed chair cites two legislative bills that could significantly harm the central bank’s ability to make independent monetary policy decisions; US economy is being allowed to “coast”
Mexico’s Carstens calls for continued trade cooperation with the US
Protectionist policies would be a step backward for both nations, Bank of Mexico governor suggests, saying continued cooperation will foster employment and investment
BoE’s Forbes dissents as inflation looms
MPC member votes for 25bp hike as inflation looks set to exceed target until “at least” 2020; other members sitting on the fence, for now
Policy intervention helps economies escape ‘stagnation traps’ – paper
Research published by ECB explains how “pessimistic expectations” can lead to low employment and growth, dampening investment; countercyclical subsidies could be the answer
Fed delivers 25bp hike
Fed makes rate hike that many FOMC members have been hinting at for weeks; committee gives bullish signals on the outlook
Fed could raise rates ‘fairly soon’ – minutes
Minutes show committee members will be watching labour and inflation data very closely; raising rates would offer “flexibility” in responding to economic changes
Uncertainty about momentum in the labour market – RBA minutes
“Mixed” picture in Australian labour market shows unemployment increasing alongside full-time employment; spare capacity likely to persist “for some time”